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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (44741)	11/17/2005 12:22:44 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

"I'd say RE is overvalued in the vast majority of the country" I have to disagree. Take out the northeast, west coast, metro Chicago, Arizona, Vegas, Hawaii and Florida and you still have a huge area including perhaps 35 states that is fairly priced. Not to mention Danville of course. I think you are both correct sort of. The values on the coasts + AZ and NV and Chicago and Minneapolis and Milwaukee etc are so freaking out of wack that you have a national bubble in terms of problems when it dies. There is not one area of the country that is immune. In short the bubble areas are the areas where the most people live. Geographically you can say that the bottom 2/3 of Illinois are not in a bubble and that might be true but... more people live in the top 1/3 and more "wealth" to use the word loosely is in that top 1/3 such that a bust of 1/3 or even 1/6th of Illinois geographically is going to matter more than if 1/2 of southern Illinois took a hit. One can not rationalize away a national bubble merely by saying that geographically there are huge areas that would not be affected, when population wise there are probably more areas that would be affected. Mish