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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (45724)	11/17/2005 11:53:52 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

"I say they will not. I further say they will not at 4.30 or 4.10" Mish we could have one round of refi's to fixed rate if they can get back into the mid 5's again. The relentless combination of resetting ARM's, higher RE taxes and insurance is causing many sleepless nights as PITI goes up substantially year over year. Another question is would the fed allow this too happen putting more of their banker friends at risk if too high a percentage of loans were fixed? I bet they are happy with 45% of mortgages today being ARM's.. When I made that statement at the top I meant in any meaningful or lasting way. Perhaps the index goes from 1700 to 1900 then back down to 1700 (something like that). Over time rates will have to go lower and lower and lower to cause a boost in refis. That is my theory but only time will tell. I see that refi index falling to 1000 or lower over time, with spurts of activity as rates drop. Now anyone that paniced into a fixed rate at the peak, might have incentive to refi lower assuming they have the equity left to do a refi. That is catch number 2: equity. Catch number 3 is lending standards. I think those only have one way to go: up Mish