Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (45843)	11/19/2005 10:05:27 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Notice the big lagged effect of this. Essentially we are talking about paid to dates of July. Alot has been happening and is continuing to happen since July besides hurricanes, including four more months of ARMs cohort resets (entering the Valley of Death): idorfman.com or 125,000 households per month according to the CNN article: Message 21899902 and declining home prices. San Diego default notices: again this is lagged, Lenders typically file default notices with the county when borrowers are three months behind on their payments, say mortgage brokers. but can't imagine it's not getting worse now: signonsandiego.com Fitch: Is This The Calm Before the Storm for U.S. CMBS Delinquencies? Fitch Ratings-Chicago-November 16, 2005: Although CMBS delinquencies declined slightly in October, next month's levels will likely feel the effects of hurricane-related delinquencies, according to Fitch Ratings. Fitch's loan delinquency index declined two basis points to 0.93% in October and 34 basis points since January 2005's rate of 1.27%. Though according to Fitch Senior Director Patty Bach, 'Servicer advances on hurricane-affected properties have been on the rise since September, so the repercussions of Hurricane Katrina, Rita and Wilma are likely to be reflected in Fitch's November data.' Fitch's delinquent loan index includes loans 60 or more days delinquent. A loan reported 60-days delinquent in October has a paid-to-date of July, therefore if payments ceased immediately after Hurricane Katrina, a loan would first appear as 60-days delinquent in November (with a paid to date of August). By property type, multifamily properties represent 31.3% by balance of Fitch's delinquent index, followed by office properties at 18.9%, retail properties at 15.5% and hotel properties at 14.7%. While multifamily and office delinquencies rose dramatically over the first half of the year, third quarter showed some improvement. Retail and hotel property delinquencies have declined for most of 2005. By delinquent category, currently 57.1% of the loan delinquency index is comprised of loans in foreclosure and REO, representing 13.8% and 43.3% of the index by balance, respectively. The two largest loans liquidated in October were a $25 million airport parking facility located in Saint Louis, MO and a $17.2 million office property located in Salt Lake City, UT, reported Bach. Overall, the seasoned delinquency index dropped eight basis points this month to 1.19% from 1.27% in September and 38 basis points from 1.57% in January 2005. The seasoned index omits transactions with less than one year of seasoning.