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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (126239)	11/19/2005 7:03:20 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

These macro counts are interesting but they're not very useful for the time frame in which we trade (at least not my time frame anyway). Yes if the ED's are in play then we are into the final push but the bottom line is right here and now there are lots of charts that are longs to me and very few shorts based on what IS happening right now.. Your idea of a more complex and lengthy ED developing on the broad indices is a valid idea. I just don't think we are anywhere near in time for an ED to be anywhere near complete. Back to our academic discussion of the larger count, again I don't believe in the ED completing as we have discussed before, i.e. soon. That implies a wholesale SPX decline coming and I can't see that happening if stocks like WMT are going to push to new highs based on the monthly triangle, or if AA is going to 40+. Meanwhile the commercials are long the big contract and Rydex are 5-1 short? There are too many clues pointing me to the upside right now. If things change on the sentiment front then I will re-evaluate, but I can't theorize as to what might happen with sentiment...that's even more esoteric analysis than sentiment analysis itself. Yes I may have these bullish patterns wrong, but that is what is happening in the here and now and that is what I'm going with. If the SPX/COMP ED's push up with an overthrow and then fail on a backtest of the upper line then I am all for them. As it stands right now, that is just a potential and emerging set-up. The bullish set-ups I have mentioned are far further along in developing and that is why they are favoured over the ED's. There is ALWAYS a bearish argument, but it is up to us as traders to put together the story of the market which reads like an Agathie Christie novel. Follow the clues, you may solve the mystery. But as always surprises emerge.