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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2261)	11/19/2005 7:33:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 219680

<<<Google now at $400 and $111 billion. That's worth a LOT more than NEM>> ... that fact is exciting in two ways, an elegant trade is nearer.> You are right. But be careful betting against brains. You should hold fire until either you see a competitor doing better [even if just as a glimmer in the eye] or until Google is running out of steam, as Microsoft seems to be doing. It is starting to look like a law of nature than a company has reached its peak when the anti-trust anti-monopoly envy industry gets going. The company will soon after be eaten alive by competitors [not as a result of the dopey anti-trust activities, just by people wanting a piece of the action and nibbling on the fringes or undercutting the foundations]. IBM was in the early 1980s a burgeoning monster which would rule the world. Microsoft is no longer seeming at all dominant. Google has got 10 times the current advertizing revenue to feed on. That's a vast amount of money. Stupendously huge. That's because their advertisements are super-well targeted, so highly efficient. Much more efficient than old styles of advertizing as well as more efficient than sending a sales rep to visit [which should be included as "advertising"]. Add up all marketing budgets around the world, and that's about the size of the money river to be diverted. But the world's population is growing and that population's cash flow is increasing, so they will buy a lot more than rice, cabbage and eggs. Then, Google might start to look like an actual brain as well. In which case I can retire from thinking and Google can do it all for me, just telling me now and then what I need to do. If I'm good, Google will reward me with some bonus cash flow. We will all [most people anyway] work for Google. Just as sheep and cows work for us, eating grass and producing what we want. Or not. I would wait to see what the alternative to Google might be. Meanwhile, don't bet against the Fed [not until I have the Quid polished up] and don't bet against Google. But Googlemania might prematurely build up to such an extent, as it did for QCOM at the literal dawn of Y2K, that you will feel obliged to divert some of the excess to yourself. Mq