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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (2424)	11/25/2005 2:12:50 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218881

We should give Stratfor credit for making a TESTABLE prediction. "Stratfor's projection: world price of oil will dropping to under $30 a barrel later this year" It's a bold prediction with a time limit. T. Boone is about the only public person with a good track record on doing this.

To: elmatador who wrote (2424)	11/26/2005 12:10:27 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218881

Stratfor is good entertainment, but not for the bankrupted folks who followed their advice :0)

To: elmatador who wrote (2424)	11/26/2005 12:52:08 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218881

... and the morons at stratfor think this here is the sustainable solution to an intractable problem ;0) even being naive is too difficult for stratfor Israel: Sharon Repackaged Summary Israeli opinion polls published Nov. 25 project that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's newly formed centrist party -- Kadima (Forward) -- will win the most seats in early elections set for March 2006. Despite his new packaging, Israeli's premier remains the same old security conscious hawk. Ultimately, it is Sharon's ability to reposition himself on the Israeli political spectrum that has made his gamble to leave his old right-wing group, the Likud party, worth it. Analysis Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's new centrist party Kadima (Forward) would win March 28 early Israeli elections, according to public opinion polls published Nov. 25. The survey, jointly sponsored by Yedioth Ahronoth, Maariv, and The Jerusalem Post newspapers, showed Forward getting between 32 to 34 seats, Labor clinching about 28, and Likud winning only 12 to 13 seats. Overall, the right-wing bloc, consisting of Likud plus smaller parties, would control no more than 30 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Additionally, reports suggest that Israeli elder statesman and former Labor Party boss Shimon Peres might be joining Forward. Sharon's domestic political maneuverings, in which he shifted from the right-wing's periphery to the political center, have allowed him to engage in high-risk moves on the foreign policy front -- such as heeding U.S. demands for the emergence of Palestinian polity -- which in turn have resulted in success in both the domestic and foreign policy arenas. While a Palestinian state in some shape or form will eventually emerge as a result of Sharon's actions, the aging Israeli pragmatic conservative has sought to consolidate the Jewish state's security as it seeks to disengage from the Palestinian territories. Sharon's departure from his erstwhile party -- Likud -- and the formation of the new centrist party will likely facilitate this move. Sharon divorced himself from Likud, the party he helped found, because he had decided it was high time to launch a party more capable of achieving his political goals rather than being forced to compromise to gain the support of party elements further to his right, such as Benjamin Netanyahu and his ilk. Though many of the details remain fuzzy, Forward will primarily serve as a centrist vehicle to advance Sharon's view of what a final settlement between the Palestinians and Israelis should look like. During such times of transition, it is useful to reflect on how the world has -- or has not -- changed. Sharon first rose to national prominence for his role in the Arab-Israeli wars, and later for alleged war crimes in Lebanon. He was considered at the right edge of Likud's right wing, a man who could never even consider treating the Palestinians as negotiating partners. In 2005, however, he became the first Israeli prime minister to surrender territory to the Palestinians -- namely, the Gaza Strip. Subsequently, he is now viewed as a political centrist. To Likud's right wing, and to political parties even further to the right, the abandonment of such land is tantamount to treason -- or even heresy. But is Sharon leading Israel into a new era? Hardly. Bear in mind that Sharon's Gaza pullout did not result from negotiation. Rather, it resulted from a decision by Sharon to consolidate Israel's borders. To Sharon, the benefit of protecting a handful of Jewish settlers in the Gaza Strip simply did not justify the burden. He sees the bulk of the West Bank in a strikingly similar light. But rather than a full Gaza-style pullout, Sharon envisions a redrawing of the Israeli-Palestinian border -- roughly along the lines of the separation wall he is building -- reapportioning the West Bank into Israeli and Palestinian sections. The Israeli sections would be fully integrated in Israel, but the Palestinian sections would for all practical purposes constitute walled-off islands. A quick glance at a map indicates that such reapportioning would permanently split the Palestinians of the West Bank into a number of geographically discrete sections permanently unable to function as a cohesive political entity. Just as separate -- and extremely antagonistic -- factions dominate Gaza and the West Bank, so too would be the various sections of the West Bank under Sharon's divorce plan. Centrist? We think not. Instead, Sharon is proving to be extremely canny, capable and credible. Forward was ranked as the country's most popular party before Sharon even announced its name Nov. 24. And Sharon now is not too far away from divorcing the Palestinians from their only real chance of actual statehood, even were he to grant statehood to them in name. Send questions or comments on this article to analysis@stratfor.com.