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Non-Tech : Deflation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JF Quinnelly who wrote (296)	12/15/2005 3:43:35 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 621

Jfred, here we are at the end of 2005, that's 6 years into the first decade of the 21st century, and I thought I should add a drop of life into this suffering, nearly expired, stream, to keep it trickling along. One swallow doesn't make a summer, and one rain drop does not make the Amazon River, but is this the start of the big deflation? biz.yahoo.com <...The Labor Department report showed the Consumer Price Index fell by 0.6 percent last month, the biggest decline since a 0.9 percent fall in July 1949. It reflected a record fall in gasoline prices, which have been retreating since they surged to above $3 per gallon right after Katrina hit. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve said output at the nation's factories, mines and utilities rose a solid 0.7 percent last month following a 1.3 percent rise in October. Industrial output had plunged by 1.6 percent in September, reflecting widespread shutdowns of oil refineries, chemical plants and other factories along the Gulf Coast. The decline in consumer prices was better than the 0.4 percent drop that analysts had been expecting. Outside of the volatile food and energy categories, so-called core prices were up 0.2 percent, matching the October increase. Both months showed a pickup in core prices from benign readings of 0.1 percent in the previous five months. Brian Bethune, senior economist at forecasting firm Global Insight, said that he expected to see further increases in core inflation in coming months, reflecting the cumulative effect of higher energy costs. "Continued pressure on the core index over the next several months will keep the Federal Reserve vigilant on the inflation watch," he said, predicting further Fed rate hikes in January and March. The Fed raised rates for a 13th time on Tuesday. ... continued...> I think not. We are going to have to wait for a vast derivatives implosion and abandonment of state issued fiat currencies. I am planning such an event, but my U [Utopia] aka Q [Quid] new cyber currency is still in the planning stages, so it'll be a while yet. And the fact that state currencies fizzle out won't really be deflationary in the broadest sense as the economies will be going even better without the vast financial entropy of banks, governments and sundry hangers-on bleeding the productive through the absurd fiat currency ponzi schemes. I will start work in earnest in 2005 when mobile cyberspace, the enabling technology, will also be surging around the world in a BIG way. Meanwhile, I think it's fair to say that we have escaped the great deflation we started discussing in the late 1990s, when a cascading economic implosion looked possible, with the Globalstar rocket crash setting off the Long Term Capital Management implosion, and the Great Asian Contagion roiled around the world while Russia was belly-up. Uncle Al KBE has since conducted enormous pixelation processes and liquidity operations with record low interest rates, neutering the whole biotelecosmictechdot.com implosion, exacerbated by 911 and the WOT. We are now nearly back up to "normal" interest rates and he can step off having carried out a couple of highly successful decades of monetary management with well-earned global accolades. It helped that China was producing mountains of goods, turbo-charging the world's economy, and that India has entered the services industry with a vengeance. 6 billion people, surging happily into the future. Wheeee .... nothing can go wrong .... even H5N1 is a wimpy fizzer. Mqurice