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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (46210)	11/28/2005 11:38:27 PM
From: regli	Respond to of 110194

Thanks for the article. I particularly liked this quote: "In the world in which we now live, credit is not rationed according to availability of depositories’ funds, as funds can be “bought” as easily as a bushel of soybeans, but rather by whatever price the market can bear. Or, in the words of the great economists of twenty-five years ago, Al Wojnilower and Henry Kaufman, a deregulated, capital markets-driven world rations credit by bankrupting the marginal borrower. And that takes a long, long time, when credit creation is collateralized by rising property values! In such a world, monetary policy tightening to lean against the wind of speculative excess in property prices and mortgage creation does not initially “work.” Rather – per Soros’ “reflexivity” thesis, borrowed from Keynes (Chapter 12 of the General Theory) and Minsky – such tightening induces more risk-seeking borrowing and lending behavior, which generates self-validating increases in the value of property collateral. Credit does not become less available, but merely more expensive, which is hardly a deterrent to momentum-driven capital markets. "

To: ild who wrote (46210)	11/29/2005 12:54:08 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Too much holiday cheer? By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Nov. 29, 2005 ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Three weeks ago, when I last wrote about sentiment among investment newsletter editors, I concluded that from a contrarian point of view they were becoming too bullish too quickly, and that this did not bode well for the stock market. marketwatch.com{6AB5339F-4606-43B0-99D5-D043E949388E}&siteid=mktw&dist=nbc Consider the latest readings from the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. As of Monday night, the HSNSI stood at 66.6%. The last time it was this high was November 2001.