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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Noel de Leon who wrote (176239)	11/29/2005 10:51:18 AM
From: bentway	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Your usage calculation is way too simplistic. The usage will not remain fixed at current levels. The Chindians all want a car, and all want to live like the 300 million Americans do, and there are currently 2+ BILLION of them. Not all of them will achieve their dream, but hundreds of millions will.

To: Noel de Leon who wrote (176239)	11/29/2005 12:20:19 PM
From: mistermj	Respond to of 281500

Debunking the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modelers) Michael C. Lynch[1] Conclusions The many inconsistencies and errors, along with the ignorance of most prior research, indicates that the current school of Hubbert modelers have not discovered new, earth-shaking results but rather joined the large crowd of those who have found that large bodies of data often yield particular shapes, from which they attempt to divine physical laws. The work of the Hubbert modelers has proven to be incorrect in theory, and based heavily on assumptions that the available evidence shows to be wrong. They have repeatedly misinterpreted political and economic effects as reflecting geological constraints, and misunderstood the causality underlying exploration, discovery and production. The primary flaw in Hubbert-type models is a reliance on URR as a static number rather than a dynamic variable, changing with technology, knowledge, infrastructure and other factors, but primarily growing. Campbell and Laherrere claim to have developed better analytical methods to resolve this problem, but their own estimates have been increasing, and increasingly rapidly. [2] URR refers to the amount of oil which is thought recoverable given existing technology and economics (price and costs). It includes estimates of undiscovered oil, but is only a fraction of the total resource The result has been exactly as predicted in Lynch (1996) for this method: a series of predictions of near-term peak and decline, which have had to be repeatedly revised upwards and into the future. So much so as to suggest that the authors themselves are providing evidence that oil resources are under no strain, but increasing faster than consumption! gasresources.net