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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (46231)	11/29/2005 10:44:19 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Apparently price concessions do their job. EDIT: Home builder stocks are barely in black.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (46231)	11/29/2005 11:05:30 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

CR, this is a jawdropping report but ......... there is only one very strong point, which I really do not understand. That is the NOT seasonally adjusted Oct number at 111,000. The most bogus number is the headline number - 1.424 million. Here is why: This is a seasonally adjusted number. We have two months left for 2005. Year to date NOT seasonally adjusted sales is 1,115,000. Therefore, for the 2005 sales to meet this headline seasonally adjusted projection of 1,424,000 units, Nov and Dec 2005 would have to sell 309,000 units. (1,424,000 minus 1,115,000) That is 154,500 per month. To put that into perspective, on a NOT seasonally adjusted basis, May was the highest month in 2005 with 120,000 units sold. Nov 2004 was 84,000, Dec 2004 was 83,000. It appears that I am not the only one who saw this discrepancy. After an initial jump, all the homebuilders are settling down. census.gov

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (46231)	11/30/2005 8:43:32 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

The key to this housing market will be the slowing of pay option and IO mortgages, that's what's driving the purchase activity (although apparently not refis). There are lots of signs that is happening or going to happen, thehousingbubble2.blogspot.com including the new Comptroller guidelines due out any time. Meanwhile refi activity has really slowed: WASHINGTON, D.C. (November 30, 2005) —The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 25. The Market Composite Index — a measure of mortgage loan application volume – was 624.1 a decrease of 1.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 635.4, one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 33.2 percent compared with the previous week but was down 8.0 percent compared with the same week one year earlier. The seasonally-adjusted indexes include an additional adjustment to account for the Thanksgiving holiday. The seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index increased by 0.8 percent to 476.2 from 472.3 the previous week whereas the Refinance Index decreased by 6.3 percent to 1484.3 from 1584.1 one week earlier. Other seasonally adjusted index activity includes the Conventional Index, which decreased 2.1 percent to 933.8 from 953.4 the previous week, and the Government Index, which increased 2.2 percent to 106.9 from 104.6 the previous week.