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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (46239)	11/29/2005 12:27:58 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 110194

CR, yes, I did over simplify. you can look at the adjustments all kinds of different angles. How about if we use a straight line? 1.424 million = 118,666 per month. How about if we use some type of moving average? Sales for the last 12 months had been 84, 83, 92, 109, 127, 116, 120, 115, 117, 107, 101, 111. You tell me how you want to adjust that one. How about the report itself? Take a look at the confidence intervals (page 2) - 60.3% for East and 56.3% for West. What they are opening saying is that we have no clue what sales for the NE and W regions are, we can be off by 60% or 56% respectively. Now the cynical side of me (that is just about all sides) is wondering if the builders are not responding to the survey knowing they are reporting bad numbers. Basically, on second look, not only do I think the headline number of 1.424 million is bogus, the NOT seasonally adjusted Oct number is equally worthless. A lot of the homebuilders are presenting at the FBR conf tomorrow. It will be interesting to see what they say.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (46239)	11/29/2005 12:38:29 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

CR none of this jives with falling sales and rising inventories in NUMEROUS markets here now. Nor does it jive with huge homebuilder discounts. I suspect mammoth downward revisions later Mish

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (46239)	11/30/2005 8:55:16 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Gasoline production, imports, and demand are back to normal (in fact a bit higher than last year), yet gasoline inventory is flat (when it should be rising) and at the low end of the range: tonto.eia.doe.gov Distillates production and demand back to normal, 200,000 b/d of extra imports, and inventory is at lower end of range. tonto.eia.doe.gov Ominous reports on Russian and North Sea oil production: Message 21932348