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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: russwinter who wrote (46292)11/30/2005 10:41:31 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
GDP is adding price inflation

reported Q3 is final at +4.3% growth
it is more like 1%, if that

we have at least 3% cheated vig from pure price inflation
prices paid in Chicago PMI was up sharply
higher prices are across the board for energy and materials
the culprit mechanism is in the deflator, intended to remove price inflation
if that mechanism is turned off, then inflation is interpreted as growth !!!

the GDP Deflator is running a full percent below CPI
the CPI is at least 3% too low
the pre-Clinton CPI calculation formula shows +7.5%

now the spin is .....
the Gulf Coast hurricanes shaved 1% off GDP
add it in and you get over 5% GDP growth

THE ONLY PROBLEM IS THAT THE 1% REFERENCED SHOULD BE SUBTRACTED
IN FACT, PERHAPS 4% SHOULD BE SUBTRACTED
the GDP Deflator over 21 months shows +5.1%
the GDP Deflator is up only 2.86% from Q3 to Q3, yr over yr

an accurate GDP Deflator should be up 5% to 8% annually !!!

this is absurd, a real big untold story
the more price inflation we get, the more growth it is labeled
if energy prices come down in Q4 reports, then so will GDP

since the great majority of our economic growth is improperly adjusted price inflation, or rather GDP growth is purely price inflation not removed one iota

/ jim



To: russwinter who wrote (46292)11/30/2005 11:21:00 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
Wall Street Journal article on Homebuilders

Message 21930339