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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (46338)	11/30/2005 3:42:13 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, you know we were discussing this credit event at least a week before WSJ caught on to the story. <ggggg> Seriously, I don't know if the street is reacting to today's data points or just deciding to take a rest. Do you appreciate the message today: This year, 6.23% of the loans are delinquent, on average, in their first nine months, a rate not surpassed until the 20th month for 2004 mortgages. By September 2004, that year's mortgages had a delinquency rate of only 3.72%. 9 months ago, these loans were probably refinances for 2-28s originated back in 2003. If the first group is already defaulting, this is a confirmation of the start of the default wave, but that is just a ripple. The tsunami is still out at sea. As these borrowers default and property value has not risen in the last few months, there will be no remedy. An anslyst that I had a chat with a couple of weeks ago figured that 3-5% appreciation is needed to facilitate a refi for the subprimers. That is going to be harder and harder to come by. The MICA data took us to the next level, to the borrowers who at least qualified for MI in the first place. Now this group is cracking and the underlying collateral is not enough to make the MI companies whole. A rather obscure piece of data is due for release tomorrow. biz.yahoo.com I doubted if anyone really pays attention to the loan production of IMH, not one of the big subprime players. If their loan production volume is low, that could point to the possibility that churning their existing borrower is coming to an end. Then we can refer back to my credit event posts and watch the sky fall.

To: russwinter who wrote (46338)	11/30/2005 7:00:39 PM
From: ggamer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Now that you see some of your good analysis and hard work come to reality, can you kindly tell us what your investment strategy is going to be going forward in the next six months to a year. You, Ramsey Su, and many other bright posters have made some amazing predictions that are going to be coming true in 2006. I just wanted to know if you were putting all this energy for only the interest of understanding the markets or are you going to be using some of these forecasts/predictions to come up with financial strategies going forward. I have seen a list of companies that you are tracking, would recommend buying some Put LEAPS on some of these stocks? Any other simple ways of benefiting from what is going to take place in the couple of years. Can we look at market conditions in the past like Japan and see what would have been the right investment when their housing/credit market bubble bursted. I have asked this question a couple of times before but I have not seen any recommendations yet. In general, do you tend not to make any recommendations to others? I think many people would appreciate any input that you can give us all. I also know that cash is king and that might be a good strategy going forward, but what if one individual wants to take some risks? I do understand that your input is going to be just a recommendation and that the final decision stays with us investors. Many thanks in advance for your input. Cheers,