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To: Perspective who wrote (126567)	11/30/2005 4:40:53 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

weve had a 6 year bear in tech and the overall market topped in 98 which is 7 years. Not saying its enough, but geting spx back to old high would still take 3 years from here

To: Perspective who wrote (126567)	11/30/2005 4:45:54 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Respond to of 209892

From a practical perspective, one could argue the Bear started - or at least that the Bull ended - in 1998. That puts us pretty close to your "~10 years" criteria. EDIT: didn't see mmike's cogent reply.

To: Perspective who wrote (126567)	12/2/2005 10:32:02 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

>>Why is it so hard for people to understand that an extended bear market (~10 years) is the most likely outcome from a decades-long bull? I really just don't get it...<< The NDX fell over 80% and the S@P 500 declined 50% from March 2000 to October 2002. I'd say we already had a Millennium Crash in the Nasdaq 100. The Bear is only a means to an end; it is not an end in itself. The Bear is meant to correct blind excessive speculation, which is what took place already in regard to the techies and was quite healthy. And while all this darkness was happening in high tech land and in the S@P, the NYSE Composite Index and Russell 2000 were quietly shedding some light and hitting new all time highs. That should make you wonder what kind of bear it was and what's in store for the rest of the decade. The Light emerges from the Dark and the Night emerges from the Light. Life, like markets, ultimately move forward. Progress and human creativity are what rule the world. To be sure, sometimes one has to take a step back or two and confront the nothingness of the night in order to move forward. Most think a Recession or big time slow down is coming in 2006. Possibly, but I don't see it. The yield curve has not become inverted yet. I do have lots of concerns. But I'm also looking at a lot of similarities to December 1994 here. Beware of the upside, Bobcor, if you don't get a Recession or major slow down in 2006. If that don't come to pass, I'm looking at the Dow tripling by 2010. As for Gold, I see another good year in store for 2006, new all time highs. But I see a top coming by January 2007. Nice run from the XAU bottom of 40-41 in October 2000.