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To: Perspective who wrote (126582)	12/1/2005 2:11:52 AM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Respond to of 209892

This I wholeheartedly agree with: Knowing a potential reward exists is irrelevant without understanding the coincident risk level. I always have my downside wing clipped. Always. More likely is a negative return for another ten years or so... That's very possible, but it really has nothing to do with the more immediate question of (eg) the Dow making or not an ATH over the next 4-6 months. I can't speak for others, but when I'm placing a bullish (or, for that matter, a bearish) bet, I'm placing it for the next 1,3,6 months, not 10 years out. There is no incompatibility between anticipating a strong bull run near-term and a flat market long-term.

To: Perspective who wrote (126582)	12/1/2005 3:14:05 PM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

bobcor, more likely is a negative return for another ten years or so Despite Rarebird's post, I think that most of the rest of us are well aware of that distinct possibility and are trading with short-intermediate timeframes in mind. This board has always been primarily concerned with timing, so rather than becoming concerned with what large move lies ahead in the future at some unknown time, most seem to be concerned with what's happening for the next several weeks only. But even trading in larger timeframes, it's all a matter of where one is looking for his returns, as there are many places beside the major indices to place one's money. If a decade ago one had been looking at this small cap fund for a ten year play, he would have been rewarded with an overall annualized return of about 20% per year: bigcharts.marketwatch.com How are you positioned right now? Most of the bears I know are not at the moment looking for longer term shorts and instead seem to favor going long on commodities and commodity related stocks. Here's one in that class that seems to have broken out of a multi-month range yesterday on heavy volume: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[dd][pb10!a45.80!f][vc60][iLah8,17,9!Lh14,5]&pref=G