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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (46382)	12/1/2005 2:59:53 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I think you completely under estimate the affect of a housing bust. Consumer spending is now 75% of our GDP 50% of jobs created in this "recovery" are related to housing. Consumer spending is driven by increased asset prices in housing, al al cash out refis to buy SUVs and other garbage. Financials are the largest component of the S&P. Borrowing is being done just to support stock buybacks. Earnings growth has peaked. You think a housing bust will not stretch across the broader markets? Mish

To: John Vosilla who wrote (46382)	12/1/2005 3:01:45 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

I cannot speak for Russ, but I expect disastrous plunges in real estate, stocks , and bonds in the not too distant future. Timing, of course, is uncertain, and the bubbles could expand considerably further before bursting. The strong bull move in gold (the one asset the powers that be do not want to see climbing) is signalling serious trouble ahead IMHO. And this signal will flash much brighter if and when gold closes above the $509 peak set back in 1983. In short, by outlawing normal bear markets the stage is being set for a super grizzly that no amount of printing will be able to prevent.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (46382)	12/1/2005 4:38:07 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

expecting disaster across the board> Anywhere the Humpties (funds, prop desks and individuals) have gone with leverage, derivatives and futures is vulnerable. Just about everything is overowned and overpriced for the risk. Energy has corrected, and we are headed into winter, and a cold spell is already in place, headlines.accuweather.com so that commodity might also have a spike in here first. I also do not expect the Humpties will get what they want on Dec. 13, and expect more actions from the ECB and possibly Japan.