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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Condor who wrote (36510)	12/2/2005 11:41:57 AM
From: TheSlowLane	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

I understand. It's just that I've seen "the top" called at 1.40, 1.50, 1.60, 1.80 and so on. And always by those who have been watching it from the sidelines. So...whatever. Last year at the BMO Conference, Phelps Dodge was telling analysts to use .85/lb copper for their earnings forecasts. Copper was trading at 1.40 at the time. An hour later, Coxe gave the lunchtime keynote. He was asked what price should be used for copper in earnings forecasts. Coxe replied that as long as we could avoid recession, that he recommended using $2/lb. The PD guys slammed their cutlery down and stomped out of the room. After all, who should know the business better than them?

To: Condor who wrote (36510)	12/2/2005 12:47:04 PM
From: Valuepro	Respond to of 39344

Adjust for inflation and from the previous high in the last cycle, I believe the price of copper comes to around $2.40 per pound. Adjusted from the high in the roaring period of the late 1970's, I think the number comes to 6 or 7 dollars per pound. If we are truly into the early years of a Super Cycle, all bets on the future top price of copper (and anything else) are off. Certainly previous highs adjusted for inflation will be breached by spot prices, though it may take some years. All IMHO, of course.