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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (46496)	12/3/2005 9:53:20 AM
From: UncleBigs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Thanks Russ. I fully agree. I think long term treasuries aren't necessarily signaling low long term inflation but are massively manipulated and managed. The questions is how does this play out into the future. On the one hand it feels like we are on the cusp of a housing bust and therefore a serious recession. On the other, it feels like we are in the midst of a global crackup boom as Doug Noland describes. The line between boom and bust is very narrow. Gold and stocks appear to be going with the crackup boom scenario. Bonds appear to be signaling weakness but as you describe that might be a false message sent to us by the Fed and foreign central banks.

To: russwinter who wrote (46496)	12/3/2005 10:38:47 AM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 110194

Fundamentally all these markets are getting to be Bubbles because of this. That's the problem with Soviet Union style intervention economics, everything is distorted. It's like the plant in Little Shop of Horrors, gets bigger and bigger, and has to be "fed" (pun intended) more and more, and with increasing difficulty. I'm terrified too, because the plant is already out of the store. Great analogy, Russ. The damn plant is like something out of an Orson Welles story, and is beginning grow shoots in every facet of society. On Thursday Lance Lewis pointed out that 52% of Nasdaq stocks are under their 200 dma. So the market is being carried to highs by fewer and few stocks. It's like a game of pick up sticks, where some people are furiously adding sticks to the top of the pile while other sticks are concurrently being pulled out from the bottom of the stack. The trillion dollar question is when does it all collapse? Kailuabruddah's Fairfax charts are an eye opener. I can tell you that the Detroit RE market is probably far worse (nothing is selling) and everything posted here says San Diego isn't any better. Mrs. Ork spent eight hours at the mall yesterday. (How the hell does someone spend all day at a mall?) She said there was traffic, put to her eye people weren't carrying a lot of packages. She said Marshall Fields was almost GIVING stuff away, including an Ann Klein (not sure I have the right name) designer button down shirt for 40% off that she said in the past would NEVER have been marked down like that until after Xmas. The Little Shop of Horrors plant needs Super Grow Organic Plant Fertilizer and it still can't get all of the nourishment it needs.