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To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (126668)	12/3/2005 11:40:01 PM
From: byhiselo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

understood, the intent of the post was not that daily 50 point SPX moves or a black monday are immenient my point...is VIX still a useful indicator to gauge market sentiment or not? the pundits seem to think not, i want to be on the other side of that the beginning of the SPX bull move in early 1995 was preceded by the SPX/VIX ratio in the 20's as were all the 'major' bottoms since...if one was long volitility in the mid 90's and short vol 2001-2004 why would one not be long now? this bull is going on 3.5 years old and the present move will hook all the fish imo...a few posts on this board over the last week noting that the 2000-2002 bear was just a blip in the longer-term bull, true enough but even the longer-term uptrend line on the SPX/INDU is 20-30% lower than here on the individual charts in many leading sectors, i'm seeing a huge number of parabolic moves which are unsustainable in summary, i think we're much closer to a top than a bottom and over the longer-term the VIX will rise and SPX will fall, the next major bottom will see SPX moves of 50 points daily if this view is in the minority, all the better cheers