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To: Jibacoa who wrote (13696)	12/6/2005 11:51:18 AM
From: Galirayo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23958

Thank you Sir Bernard. Which Avian Flu Plays do you like ?? Have any in mind? US plan assumes worst for bird flu Officials to meet with each state By Maggie Fox, Reuters \| December 6, 2005 WASHINGTON -- The United States is preparing for a worst-case scenario if bird flu causes a human pandemic, with a projected 92 million people sick, schools closed, and businesses disrupted, Michael Leavitt, health and human services secretary, said yesterday. Leavitt said he was scheduling 50 state-by-state meetings with state and local officials to begin pinning down how each community will plan for the possible pandemic of H5N1 avian influenza. 'The reality is, and you know it, pandemics happen," Leavitt said at a meeting in Washington of state and local health and emergency officials. 'When it comes to a pandemic, we are overdue and we are underprepared." The H5N1 avian flu virus has infected 130 people in five Asian countries and killed 69 of them. But it is spreading steadily among poultry flocks from China to Ukraine, and specialists expect it will affect birds around the world. The US plan includes a worst-case scenario with an outbreak that would start in a small village in Thailand and then spread quickly to Europe and the United States. 'At the end of week six you will see pandemic cases [in the United States] that will be 722,000," Leavitt said. Within 16 weeks of the theoretical Thai outbreak, 92 million Americans would have been infected with H5N1 flu. The virus now has a known 50 percent mortality rate, but no one knows how it will mutate and how that will affect its ability to be transmitted, to cause disease, and to kill. It remains difficult for humans to catch -- for now. 'What we don't have, and what we hope we never have, is sustained human to human transmission like we do with seasonal influenza," Dr. Julie Gerberding, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said at the meeting. But federal health officials said it was urgent for local communities to get prepared now. 'Emergency planning does not go well when undertaken in the middle of a disaster itself," Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said at the meeting. He cited lessons learned from Hurricane Katrina, which devastated Gulf of Mexico states in August and September. 'The earlier you begin to plan, the better off you are." Leavitt said governors were being asked to convene meetings within 120 days. 'We believe there is a great advantage if all of us are using the same pandemic planning assumptions," Leavitt said. Chertoff said a pandemic would affect 'the entire fabric of our society." People will stay home from work and school, impacting supplies of food and possibly even water, electricity, and fuel. 'We live in a world of just-in-time supply chains," Chertoff said. That could mean shortages. © Copyright 2005 Globe Newspaper Company. boston.com