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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2604)	12/8/2005 12:56:08 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 219689

Why despondent ? "I feel despondent, as if there is an orgy at some hot club and I am stuck on the highway in the middle of nowhere" I would have thought you might have made some initial introductions which lead to the party.... The very good news is many parts of your family are doing well for themselves in today's new environment. They are not working for GM or some state enterprise in France or some bank in China so insolvent that even the dumb US banks won't buy it, waiting for the inevitable .... which means more time, energy and money is availible for building a future for your other responsibilities, from short term employees to a certain Coconut. Oh, and maybe something nice for Mommy and Daddy this Christmas ;-) ***** I have cousin who is trial lawyer. A very succesful trial lawyer, who has been making over seven figures a year (and maybe sometimes eight figures) for about 10 years now.... There's a little envy there, but not that much. Silicon Valley often seems to have some party where I either got my invitation late in the mail, or didn't make the list... And has inspired much more envy.... ***** Bauxite for the smelter comes from Jamacia, I assume ? Location in Trinidad - natural gas + rule of law + English language. I can just see China building something in Venezuela, and then after Chavez starts appropriating too much of the revenue, certain interests in China ask certain parts of the US Government to exert appropriate pressure/influence/persuassion on Vz to play straight... we might have to do favors so certain nations central banks will keep buying Treasury bills. - I like the win-win-win Oh by the way, I don't TEOTWAWKI means most people get poorer, even in those developed nations with lots of credit card debt. I think almost everyone that participates will win, with rising living standards. Of course some will do better than others... The sure way to lose is to not participate - being isolated by geography, like far inland China, Siberia, central Africa, etc. Or a isolated government - North Korea comes to mind. My major point is world trade and development is a positive sum game, not zero. I also think there is some moderate tendency to spread out capital, developent, etc. (in line will El Mat's observations of capital spreading) Instead of last man standing, most everyone one will be standing - but in their own separate economic/technical/geographic world. A Pollyana view....and maybe a realistic view.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2604)	12/8/2005 2:07:18 PM
From: Eva	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219689

TJ It's good to belong to a Clan, even better if it is a widespread one! You are one lucky dude Cheers Eva

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2604)	12/8/2005 2:16:01 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219689

TJ, 20 years ago in my BP incarnation I was ogling Trinidad gas as a potentially excellent source of methanol to fuel the USA highways. Exporting aluminium to China, or aluminum to the USA, or methanol to both is more convenient and cheaper than shipping LNG around the world. <Anyway, once the smelter is up and running, a lot of Trinidad and Venezuelan energy will be exported to China in aluminium ingot form, and so Canadian gas will be more expensive as less LNG is loaded from Trinidad to everywhere, mostly north, and so our natural gas shares ought to rise in value, along side our gold, and stuff. A sort of win-win-win triple play :0)> I like a win-win-win-win-win-Winn situation. As you say, being up close and personal is much more fun than watching a win-win-win-win-win...etc situation while being stuck somewhere else. That's like living in Mao's China while peering over the fence at Hong Kong and more so New Zealand. No wonder people were so keen to escape. They are still wanting to get out, though plenty are now doing okay. On the economics of energy, I suspect it's better to export methanol from Trinidad than aluminium. Aluminium should be produced from electricity which can be produced in China via nuclear power. Bauxite and uranium can go from Australia to China. But until there is sufficient demand for methanol, that's pie in the sky, and meanwhile aluminium is wanted now. Which leads to the conclusion that not many people are thinking there's really an energy shortage for the long run. Fuel cells and methanol are still wayyyyyyy in the future. Crude oil producers can easily undercut methanol as a vehicle fuel. Meanwhile, the Natural TRADE, OBVIOUS Exchange, Apparent Wager, and Sure Bet is to ship bauxite to Trinidad, cook it with gas, ship aluminium to China, and presumably reclaim land using the residue to protect against CO2-induced sea level rise. Thanks for the CO2! It will help crops grow in NZ, which can be sold to China. China can produce aluminium-based products for me to buy. Everyone happy. Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2604)	12/8/2005 3:56:03 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219689

DECEMBER 12, 2005 The Dollar Is Still Defying Gravity One big surprise of 2005 has been the rise of the dollar. Higher interest rates in the U.S. vis-à-vis the rest of the world have partially bolstered the currency. But now that other central banks are set to begin raising rates, the question becomes whether the greenback will retain its value So far this year the dollar is up 3% on a trade-weighted basis and it has jumped 13% against the euro and 15% against the yen. Foreign companies and investors still have confidence in the American economy. It's their investments that are lifting the dollar and could offset any weakness resulting from higher interest rates in Europe and Japan. A good sign of that confidence is foreign direct investment (FDI), which flows into hard assets such as equipment and structures. In the first half, FDI in the U.S. totaled $47.8 billion, and for all of 2005 it should equal or exceed last year's total of $95.9 billion. What's more important, says Joseph Quinlan, chief market strategist at Bank of America Corp.'s (BAC ) Investment Strategies Group, is that the data refute the notion that China and the U.S. are fighting for funds. FDI into China should total about $55 billion in 2005, down from $60.6 billion in 2004. Global investors also continue to snap up U.S.-issued securities such as Treasury bonds and corporate equities. In September, net foreign buying of U.S. securities hit a record $101.9 billion. Treasury data show that Britain has been a big purchaser of U.S. securities, but analysts at Capital Economics in London think that these inflows might be the result of excess oil revenues from the Middle East and Russia being channeled through Britain and into U.S. markets. If so, a reversal in oil prices could result in a dip in foreign purchases of U.S. securities. The falloff, however, may not be enough to cause any sudden drop in the dollar. That has been a fear in 2005, given the growing U.S. current-account deficit, the broadest measure of America's IOUs to the rest of the world. The day of reckoning over its huge imbalance looks likely to be postponed as long as foreign investors are content to park their cash in the U.S. businessweek.com