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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (46872)	12/9/2005 10:29:57 AM
From: UncleBigs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, the feel of an inflationary crack-up boom is something I share. However it's only in the asset markets. Retail sales are fairly weak. Auto sales are poor. Consumer discretionary such as Harley Davidson and Polaris are weak. To me, there is a massive disconnect between the real economy and the speculative asset markets.

To: russwinter who wrote (46872)	12/9/2005 10:31:08 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

"We may very well be in the midst of a hyper-liquidity inflationary Crack Up Boom, it all has that feel to it, but even if so, this environment is extremely high risk." That may well be true. It can be argued that while some assets like bubble RE, many commodtities and long term treasuries are way overvalued after an extended run the same can not be said for gold or flyover country RE. Then look at the stock market. There are a ton of beaten up bargains out there even with the Russell at all time highs. My guess is this a rolling stagflationary depression we are in. Rather than everything eventually inflating at once we have pockets of incredible prosperity coming fast and furious while at the same time there is incredible misery and cleansing of excess debt and misallocation of capital in others.