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To: IHateSourCream who wrote (126888)12/9/2005 1:39:00 PM
From: skinowski  Respond to of 209892
 
AMGN - I wish I could be of more help, but this is a tough one. In the big picture, the stock looks like it is in a Wave 4 of a large impulse since October 2004. The problem is that this is not helpful in the short term.

Right now the stock is testing the ~78 area, which was a support / resistance level since last summer. It may hold. The next support should be near the congestion at 76.

I don't think waves can contribute here very much in the shorter time frames... all moves up and down are rather powerful.

I'll give it some more thought later, but for now -- If I were to go long this stock right now, I'd give it maybe a point or less, expecting 78 to hold.



To: IHateSourCream who wrote (126888)12/9/2005 1:51:50 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo  Respond to of 209892
 
AMGN....Sorry to hear of your discomfort, IHSC.....Hate to weigh in again with my clownish optimism here, but still tend to take a relatively optimistic view...longer-term.....

As you know, my overall market view here is short-term bearish.....maybe through the end of this month.....and then bullish again into the New Year. If that holds any water, we could see some further pulling back..maybe even as far down as the 200dMA....which is now 71, and rising at the rate of about 2 points a month....

But only you can determine your comfort level, and whether that much more of a pullback is something you would care to tolerate.

btw.....thought of hedging all or part with some puts??

Also, btw......I had held only calls here, but I am currently completely out......watching closely, though, for any signs of revival.

Whatever you decide.....buona fortuna !!! ......



To: IHateSourCream who wrote (126888)12/9/2005 3:45:42 PM
From: kckip  Respond to of 209892
 
Hi IHSC,

Just to add my two cents worth on AMGN

Looks like 5 clean waves up from the April 05 low to the Sept top. It would be in the C of the corrective wave now and if C=A would possibly close the gap in the next 2-3 weeks before heading to new highs.

Even the subwaves count pretty good 5's and 3's.

Maybe a good proxy for the market?

All FWIW of course :)