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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: UncleBigs who wrote (46916)	12/9/2005 1:40:20 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 110194

you may be right, but history says otherwise

To: UncleBigs who wrote (46916)	12/9/2005 1:46:21 PM
From: inchingup	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Uncle Bigs: "You're long gold and wondering if you should sell and if so, what else you should buy." In actuality, I do not care about the price fluctuations in gold. If it went to $0 it would not affect my lifestyle. This is exactly why I asked for a defiinition of a "gold bug" a term that has bothered me for years on SI and elsewhere. I do not need to sell it to pay off debt and I certainly don't need the cash to invest elsewhere. Even if I chose to cash out I can't think of anything that would warrant me investing in. Can you?

To: UncleBigs who wrote (46916)	12/9/2005 2:01:03 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

Sometime is 2006, I think we see a psychological shift. A shift towards risk aversion. A demand for safety. Cash. The reach for return on capital will morph into a reach for return of capital. When that occurs, every asset that has skyrocketed over the past 4 years will retreat in tandem. And that includes gold in my opinion. We really think very much alike. I wrote on the "psychological shift" on my blog last night. I was up until 3:00AM writing about that and other things. It is not posted yet however. I have to send it to W&G first. Where I think you may be right is in gold miners more so than gold. Gold may decline initially in fact as deflation mentality kicks in, but gold acting as money in the face of a FED that tries to fight deflation, physical gold is likely to rise. Mish

To: UncleBigs who wrote (46916)	12/9/2005 2:11:49 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

"When that occurs, every asset that has skyrocketed over the past 4 years will retreat in tandem. And that includes gold in my opinion." There will be an inflection soon that tells us whether we are headed down the depression or stagflation route. So far to me the signs continue to point more and more towards stagflation with long term bonds and bubble RE the only certainty to go down. It would be impossible for every asset to simultaneously tank cause in a depression long term treasuries (which also have had a great run the past 4 years) will rise.