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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (45590)	12/9/2005 10:55:38 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Do you really think this board reflects national housing sentiment? Given how illiquid housing is, even IF we did (which I doubt) would it matter in the slightest? Now you have a valid point perhaps about homebuilders, but a far far less valid point about home prices themselves. Once the housing market turns, and I think it has, it is going to be damn hard to turn back around. Mish

To: marginmike who wrote (45590)	12/10/2005 3:36:56 AM
From: Proud Deplorable	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

no, the sign of a top in a bull market is panic buying which in the last year was clearly the case. The real estate bull is over ....that is except the "BULL" from the industry itself. example of panic or euphoria: A HOUSE OF CARDS ---------- Carol LLoyd at the San Francisco Chronicle examines the finances of two speculators. "In the three years since Lori Sacco and Chris McCook put their faith in real estate, the couple have embarked on what might conservatively be called an E-ticket ride, pulling equity from appreciating properties to provide down payments for the next investment. They have bought eight vacation properties, four homes in Florida, three in California and 100 raw acres on top of a mountain in Lake County." "McCook got licensed as a contractor, Sacco as a real estate broker. Together last month, they opened a real estate brokerage. Sacco readily admits that she and McCook have made mistakes. This summer, the couple ignored their own formula and bought two high-end condos in Florida before learning how competitive the vacation rental market was there. Now, only a few months later, they are putting them on the market to reduce their debt and stress. 'We broke our own rules,' she explains. 'Vacation (rentals) are not for the faint of heart.'" "They don't have jobs, but their lives appear to be a whirlwind of work. They don't have incomes either, though they maintain middle-class lifestyles. Sacco estimates that along with McCook's mother, they've made $1.3 million since they began their buying spree, but all of this is still in equity on their properties. Their monthly reality is more sobering. They have $2.3 million in mortgage debt and negative cash flow that ranges from $5,000 to $15,000 monthly depending on the season." "So how do they pay the bills? 'We sort of count our equity loans as our income,' she says, with the slightest wince. 'If we had real jobs, we'd be fine, but we just need to get some money in. Some people call it a pyramid, but I don't like to think about it that way.'" ----------------- COMMENTS: blogger.com 'Those people should seek treatment. Prozac, Valium, electro-shock therapy - whatever it takes.'