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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Douglas M. Benedict who wrote (46986)	12/10/2005 11:44:30 AM
From: UncleBigs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

That's a nice story and it is exactly why the person making $60k per year bought a $700k house (worth $225 in 2001) using a pay option loan and no money down in So. Cal. last summer. If you're asking me would I rather be a buyer or seller of that home, I'd choose seller. By the time this buyer realizes the trend has changed, it's too late. He'll be bankrupt.

To: Douglas M. Benedict who wrote (46986)	12/10/2005 11:52:57 AM
From: UncleBigs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Let's put your theory into practice. Take gold for example. When you would acknowledge a change in trend and sell out? $510? maybe that's just a small correction before a resumption of the bull market. $490? maybe that's just a shakeout correction before a powerful new bull move. $470? maybe that's just an oversold correction to remove the weak hands before a sling shot to new highs? My point is that you can't tell a trend change from a correction until well after the fact. The chances are much better that you pressed your bets at the high only to ride them down and sell out much lower in an emotional purge later. You should study the works of Tom Demark. He says the trend is your enemy and he has some fabulous facts to back that up.