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To: IHateSourCream who wrote (126908)	12/10/2005 4:53:50 PM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

What I really want is for AMGN to reverse here at 78 and go parabolic -- heck with the wave count! ;-) Could you all start buying in mass and make it happen??? :-) I did my part... g. Decided to risk a point on this setup. Average price 78.33, hard stop at 77.24. I see no fault with either one of the counts which you presented. Obviously, only one of them will work out - hopefully, the more immediately bullish one... -g The rally from last October low was no mashed potatoes... it was pretty impulsive - and the recent decline retraced between 50 and 62% of that rally. As I mentioned before, 78 was a support / resistance area since last summer. There is a fair chance that it may hold again. We'll find out.

To: IHateSourCream who wrote (126908)	12/11/2005 8:55:27 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

A little risk / benefit analysis: Let's assume the probability of AMGN starting the 5th from this level ($78) is 40%. The risk is $1 Wave 5 would be equal 62% of W3 at $92. The potential profit is $14. $14 times 0.4 probability of winning = 5.16. $1 times 0.6 probability of losing = 0.60. 5.16 minus 0.6 = 5.46. This means that if I keep doing trades like this one, I should be able to make an average of over 5 points per trade. Sounds too good to be true, and probably is.... ;) Of course, if the 5th will be only 50% of 3, the potential profit comes down to 3.4 points. I'll take it! -g