Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (45616)	12/10/2005 2:51:23 PM
From: redfish	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar ... could be the reason people turned so bearish is that the suckitude is going to be really bad.

To: marginmike who wrote (45616)	12/10/2005 8:11:16 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

MM, did you see this? Message 21961893 Yes I agree, with some of what you say but also everyone still thinks housing will just stabilize and there will not be a recession. I saw a report yesterday from someone predicting a loss of 800,000 jobs because of housing slowdown but that would not cause a recession! The concesus is overwhelming that we are some kind of permanently high plateau or that any dip will not be significant. So yes, there is a lot of top calling but no one seems to believe a decline. There is also an enormous concensus that the economy is strong and will stay strong. Also Greenspan and others say the yield curve does not matter. A strange thing really but I really do not see a mass of buyers rushing back in to the markets that have turned. Mish

To: marginmike who wrote (45616)	12/10/2005 8:33:30 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 306849

Dave's Top Ten Merrill Lynch Economic Commentary 9 December 2005 Message 21962030 MM #1 is the bullish scenario. I have a really very hard time believing capex is going to the moon and hiring in the US (the only place that matters) will pick up. In what do we NOT have overcapacity? Cars, finacial services, home building? Mish

To: marginmike who wrote (45616)	12/11/2005 11:19:24 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

"As a contrarian, and a gold bug, and someone who believes fiat money is being debassed that it is an interesting hypothesis to think that housing and stocks are going to have another gigantic run starting in 07." Perhaps a mad gold rush with broad stock averages and commodities continuing relentlessly higher? Perhaps housing does go up in the areas where it hasn't which geographically is 3/4 of the country? I think that can all happen even with a crack in the bloated overpriced coastal housing markets where psychology has turned negative. It is screwed no matter which fork in the road we take stagflation or depression IMHO..