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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: regli who wrote (47012)	12/10/2005 7:09:30 PM
From: Sawdusty	Respond to of 110194

IMO, there is a good deal of truth in your post regli. Well done.

To: regli who wrote (47012)	12/11/2005 11:39:29 AM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Since the "Passing of the Buck" low of almost a year ago the Dollar index rallied from 80 to 92 1/2, and so far it is in a healthy looking uptrend. Not too bad for a "Dead Buck Bounce"... -g "The real concern is what happens when the big adjustments happen and where do you want to be positioned at that time.... gold sounds like a tremendously attractive proposition to me" This happens to be my real concern as well - as, probably, of many other individuals who tend to think that we are still in a major Bear market. To put it simply, the question is, Why Gold? I have nothing against the metal, and I own some, but - why not some other "real" asset, like Oil, which has a huge built in "obligatory consumption" floor? And many Oil Co's pay a dividend, which is a nice feature to have while the rest of the big picture is waiting to get sorted out. In the shorter term, if Real Estate and the equities come down in price, wouldn't that imply a rally in the value of the Dollar? If at some point I'll be able to buy twice the $SPX and twice the RE for my USD's - how else can this be defined if not an increase in the value of money? Defaults would hurt creditors... but they happen because debtors are illiquid - because cash would not be easy to get one's hands on. I have a difficult time understanding why under such circumstances one would want to exchange precious cash for gold. Of course, at some point a US President - either this one, or the next, or the one after - would give Bernanke the needed nod to launch that infamous helicopter... but that, imo, would come later, and would represent another chapter in the long story. Just trying to understand....