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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (47023)	12/10/2005 11:44:32 PM
From: regli	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

>What would surprise you? How about $550 POG by Dec 31?< <g>The more permanent and by far least flexible parts of my portfolio would love it but the temporary parts generally referred to as contracts would be somewhat surprised and definitely not as happy. As you can see I am torn but expect a short term retreat. I believe that the HUI/XAU lack of spring indicates an overbought and overextended market that needs a healthy correction for a much bigger run later on. However, there are many scenarios under which I could see $550. There is so much interest being developed now in the PMs that it is very difficult for me to make a confidant short term call. The key question in my mind is if physical market take-off is already significantly influencing price. I believe that at some point this will happen and then market behavior that we are used to will change dramatically and most of the indicators we are using today will be irrelevant.