A19: There clearly is LOTS of interest in Tejada...fyi from today's Chicago Tribune...
Big Z may be the right bait
By Phil Rodgers
chicagotribune.com
Cubs could justify sending their young workhorse to the Orioles for Tejada
Published December 12, 2005
If you want to know what's going to happen with Miguel Tejada, the easy answer is probably nothing.
There are always more trade requests that aren't fulfilled than those that are, and doing any kind of deal with a Baltimore Orioles front office kept on a tight leash by owner Peter Angelos is problematic at best.
But here's what Cubs general manager Jim Hendry should be working to make happen: a trade for the perennial All-Star shortstop built around—gasp—Carlos Zambrano, followed immediately by the signing of a free-agent starter to take Zambrano's place in the rotation.
Because Kevin Millwood, Jarrod Washburn and Jeff Weaver won't be free agents forever, Hendry can't give Orioles counterpart Mike Flanagan long to ponder his options.
Hendry should offer Zambrano, center fielder Corey Patterson and shortstop Ronny Cedeno for Tejada and right-hander Daniel Cabrera or one of the Orioles' pitching prospects—Hayden Penn, John Maine or Adam Loewen. He should tell him the offer is good for only 72 hours, and then he should use those hours burning up the phone line to Scott Boras, who represents Millwood, Washburn and Weaver.
Losing Zambrano would be painful, no doubt. But when people say that pitching wins, they mean pitching depth wins. Just about every general manager would rather have an elite position player, especially at an up-the-middle position, than an elite pitcher.
Using Bill James' win shares from 2004-05 as the measuring stick, the 29-year-old Tejada ranks as the 10th-most-valuable position player in the majors. The guys above him: Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Manny Ramirez, Bobby Abreu, Jim Edmonds, Mark Teixeira, Brian Giles and Todd Helton. Only Pujols and Teixeira are younger than Tejada.
Johan Santana and Roger Clemens are the only pitchers in the top 34. You can certainly question James' methodology, but consider that Clemens and Millwood, earned-run average leaders in their respective leagues, were a combined 22-19 in 62 starts this season. Or that Zambrano has averaged 14.3 wins for three seasons of excellence in the Cubs' rotation.
Weaver (11 wins a year), Millwood (10.5) and Washburn (9.8) haven't been as consistently successful, but the falloff from Zambrano to one of them would be a reasonable price to pay for the addition of Tejada, who plays every day and hasn't driven in fewer than 98 runs since 1999.
Yes, Tejada's RBI total plunged from 150 to 98 last season. But before you start thinking that Rafael Palmeiro was on to something by linking Tejada to steroids, understand that his batting average dropped only seven points and his slugging percentage just 19 points. The problem was he had 40 fewer at-bats with men in scoring position. (Wonder if that explains some of his displeasure?)
Because the Orioles worked some tricks in the six-year, $72 million deal Tejada signed before 2004, there's almost $57 million left for four years, about $14.2 million per year. That's a high price, especially with Aramis Ramirez signed for $11 million a year over the next three years and Derrek Lee a season from free agency and certainly more than that.
But the price of keeping together Zambrano and Mark Prior, not to mention the damaged Kerry Wood, is about to get real high too. And, as Cubs followers should know by now, pitching is a volatile commodity.
If Hendry could trade Zambrano and Patterson, he'd save himself about $9 million from his projected 2006 payroll. And there's no guarantee the arbitration-eligible Zambrano won't ask for more than the $5.5 million we're estimating. Tejada is due $11.6 million in 2006, including a prorated share of his signing bonus.
Hendry should have enough remaining resources to sign one of the free-agent starters and find a right fielder somewhere. Or he could expand a Tejada deal to add Baltimore's Jay Gibbons.
Without Zambrano, who is not going to hold up forever with Dusty Baker's heavy-handed use of him, the Cubs would have to get a strong return from Wood and hope 25-year-old lefty Rich Hill can throw enough strikes to win games and excite fans. If the bullpen and lineup are improved, there's less of a burden on all the starters.
The pie-in-the-sky approach to Tejada's availability is to urge Hendry to back up the truck at the minor-league camp and ship the Orioles his best prospects.
That would be a grab-bag selection potentially including Felix Pie, Angel Guzman, Matt Murton, Sean Marshall, Hill or Cedeno.
Even if Baltimore would make a deal like this, it would be incredibly short-sighted on the Cubs' part after sending three potential starting pitchers in Ricky Nolasco, Renyel Pinto and Sergio Mitre to Florida for Juan Pierre.
Trading Zambrano for Tejada is a risky proposition. It wouldn't be a foolish one. |
