Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mick Mørmøny who wrote (45712)	12/13/2005 9:27:41 PM
From: Proud Deplorable	Respond to of 306849

Mick.......here is why you are reading propaganda. Listen to this guy carefully as he is Canada's very TOP realtor. howestreet.com

To: Mick Mørmøny who wrote (45712)	12/13/2005 9:31:52 PM
From: Proud Deplorable	Respond to of 306849

Readers Take RE 'Cheerleader' To Task A writer at the North County Times had a little outburst the other day. "I continue to boil at all the negative talk that seems to be bent on driving down home prices. Every real estate report, and even other economic reports, are constantly being skewed to suggest the worst possible scenario." "Speaking of the bubble, I'm tired of people trying to compare real estate today to the tech stock debacle of 2000. Bubbles occur when there is a mania. Investors back then were clamoring to buy any tech stocks at any price. Ask a real estate agent today and they will tell you clients want to wait until prices drop 20 percent before they buy a new house." But the readerships' response at the bottom is more newsworthy. "Earth to George, the tech stock bubble is actually a great analogy. THAT bubble was the previous record holder for creation of 'wealth.' Thats what asset bubbles do. You have to realize that if the holders of that asset class actually tried to convert that 'value' into currency, suddenly, the values would no longer exist." "The correction is coming, the only question is when. The longer this bubble goes, the worse the correction will be. I think many of the people talking up the bubble are hopping to prick it before it gets so big it destabilizes the larger economy (probably too late)." Another said, "I'm really not quite sure what this Chamberlin guy is smoking... all he has to do is go and walk around the sales offices in Bressie Ranch and La Costa Greens to see the faces of desparation for a buyer, any buyer. Total inventory of homes on the MLS now exceeds 15,000, up from a low of 3-4,000. And have you seen the sales figures for San Diego?" And another, "Wow George, I have enjoyed your anecdote immensely. Thank you for speaking out against the bad Real Estate reporters trying to drive down the prices in San Diego...No the laws of Economics and supply and demand do not apply in San Diego and your house will be worth as much as you want in your head." Bill said, "It appears you are confusing your perspective on home ownership (a place to live) with the fact that up until recently something like 30% of homes in San Diego county are being bought by investors and speculators. When they see a better place for their money, they will be out of the market and the market will correct. My guess is that a 25% correction would be expected and it could exceed 30%." Some of these have to be readers of this blog. "Finally there is truth in reporting in regard to the steepest and fastest real estate run-up in history, and what are you doing? Repeating the same propaganda your friend Mr. Forrester tries to espouse. What is wrong with waiting for that 20% drop in real estate prices? Mr. Chamberlin, plenty of buyers in Carlsbad are kicking themselves because had they waited 6 months, they could have gotten their new homes for a 15% discount!! And quite frankly, there may be another 15% discount if they are willing to wait another 6 months. Are you telling your children who just graduated college or just got married to get that ARM I/O loan to get into an overpriced $600,000 home just so they can build equity at the top of the market? I think not!" COMMENTS:........... blogger.com . . . . .

To: Mick Mørmøny who wrote (45712)	12/14/2005 4:31:03 AM
From: Mick Mørmøny	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Slump? Real Estate Tax Revenue Keeps Rising By MIKE McINTIRE Published: December 14, 2005 Real estate values in New York have risen so much that a modest decline in the market will not seriously disrupt the stream of revenue from property-transaction taxes that has helped balance the city's budget in recent years, according to a new report by independent analysts. The report, released yesterday by the city's Independent Budget Office, a nonpartisan fiscal watchdog, suggested that the city has been understating its projected revenues from real estate and mortgage taxes. It said that these tax revenues have continued to defy expectations of a decline, and that it now appears any future slowdown will not be as pronounced as was once feared. The rosier outlook is due as much to a quirk of the city's tax structure as it is to the region's economic vitality. Real estate and mortgages valued at more than $500,000 are taxed at higher rates when sold or refinanced, and with more residential and commercial properties priced above that threshold, the flow of money from that revenue stream has ballooned. Thirty-three percent of residential sales last year involved homes priced above $500,000, up from 10 percent in 2000, the report said. "Barring an unprecedented fall in property values, this increase in the share of transactions subject to the higher rates is unlikely to be fully reversed," the report said. "Thus, at least some of the recent tax revenue growth is probably locked in thanks to this bracket creep." What is more, unlike the income tax rate, which declines when applied to lower incomes, the higher real estate transaction tax rate applies to the full sale price. So if a home sells for just a few dollars more than $500,000, the seller must pay 42 percent more in transaction taxes on the entire amount, not just the portion that exceeds the half-million-dollar mark. The surging real estate market has helped bail the city out of its financial troubles in recent years, and is on track to do the same next year. Just last month, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg released updated estimates showing an extra $3.4 billion from taxes, much of it real estate related, coming in over the next two fiscal years. Despite the improved tax collections, the administration remained loath to change its assumptions of a looming real estate market decline and its negative effect on the city's $52 billion budget. The city still anticipates reduced revenues over the next few years, which, coupled with rising expenses, results in a projected deficit of more than $4 billion in the fiscal year that begins in 2007. Yesterday, Jordan Barowitz, a spokesman for the mayor, said there was nothing in the Independent Budget Office report that would prompt the administration to revise its cautionary long-term outlook. The report said that despite rising mortgage interest rates, which had been expected to be a drag on real estate sales, there has been little sign of a market slowdown this year. In the first quarter of the fiscal year that started in July, property transaction taxes totaled $404 million, or 56 percent of what the administration anticipated for the full year. Similarly, taxes on mortgages totaled $458 million, or 62 percent of the projected annual total. As a result of the steady increases, the city last month said it now expected taxes from both categories to end the fiscal year about 50 percent above what was originally expected. nytimes.com