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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (47161)	12/13/2005 11:32:23 AM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Wait till the Iran Oil Bourse comes online. No one even talking about this at all, at least very few! And trades in Euros, and add a housing bust - all this and more, GM, derivatives.....play into the coming K winter. Gonna get ugly and soon. I see a downleg here 200 pts in the NDX and then another potential pop up. But that remains to be seen, so we just let the charts call it. The cycle work says we have up to 9 months left before lights out MAX, time running short. NDX 1525, rally into NDX 1750/1800 for new highs or this prepice Kitchin Cycle bursts right here and the market caves big. (will update these two going forward as the data changes for those on this thread) Two takes, both from old timers I see as the best in the biz. Also of note this one old timer sees no way around the K winter......NO WAY. He is talking massive downer within that 9 month window. And it is not Precter........FYI Talk about market risk..... Pick one. West

To: mishedlo who wrote (47161)	12/13/2005 12:38:22 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Why are the major financial institutions like Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase and Bank America in such fine shape today if a major debt cleansing and possible depression is on the horizon? On the other side if only a localized coastal housing bust and stagflation is in our future could that be the reason these major institutions are strong performers?

To: mishedlo who wrote (47161)	12/13/2005 3:03:53 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Once again, you ignore the facts to promote your theory. <Basically the difference between my position and everyone else's aside for what I have mentioned above is that I see deflation is coming because I see a huge collapse in credit (and it was that credit that fed these bubbles) and the result of that is doing to be a recession. In fact, credit expansion and consumer debt service has gotten so out of hand we are going to see a deflationary crash perhaps, or perhaps something like what happened in Japan.> As you do so often, you conveniently ignore anything that contradicts your deflation hypothesis. Japan was a creditor nation running a huge current account surplus with stupendous domestic savings. The US is the mother of all debtor nations running a massive current account deficit financed by foreigners recycling their dollars. The US has no domestic savings to tap. When the bust comes the floor comes out from under the dollar, the cost of money soars and the economy stagnates or shrinks -- otherwise known as stagflation. If the Fed prints money it simply increases the level of inflation. Your dollars are not going to suddenly be worth more if the economy tanks and the true risk premium on credit is priced into the market. On the contrary, you will simply find that the world revalues all dollar denominated assets while raising the cost of everything imported upon which we are sorely reliant -- including but not limited to oil (and yes that is inflation, completely apart from peak oil or what the Fed might or might not do). In a word, we are faced with a period of worsening poverty beacuse of our global debtor status. Liquidating this debt will cause us to be poor -- there is no way around it. How poor and for how long is hard to say. But make no mistake, the answer lies not with the Fed -- the answer lies with our foreign creditors.