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To: marginmike who wrote (127066)12/14/2005 11:17:53 AM
From: ajtj99  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
Well, GLA.u would likely double top at 2.65 in the next year, that's nearly 50% up from here.

If Aluminum doubled in price, it would probably double as well.

I think 50% up is almost a given for Aluminum.

BTW, I'm out of the Nikkei now. I know you were in from last year, but I took the 70% gain and bailed, leaving another 22% on the table but making a nice year from a mutual fund buy. The Nikkei was down 2% last night.

I looked at many international charts this weekend and the only international market that looks like it has nice upside potential during 2006 is Thailand. I think it could move up 30% next year. Everything else looks ready to correct/consolidate in 2006.

BTW, 37% of the cost to produce Aluminum is electricity. If the power supply to the factory is cheap or on a long term contract (Nuclear in Canada could be advanateous here), they'll likely benefit the most. Coal looks like it's going up 20%, and Natural Gas appears ready to spike to $19/million BTU's. Oil looks like it's ready to run to $80/bbl, and so on.

All of this seems to be working well with a cycle low in fall 2006 for the US markets. We'll see.