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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (47435)	12/15/2005 3:23:57 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Why in January?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (47435)	12/15/2005 3:24:30 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Starting in about two weeks you will see the corporate tax receipts (they better get $60 billion, due today, I'll post Monday after close on the DST), used up and financing needs soar. At that point all the ARMs indexes will shoot up in a killer wave. The FCBs will have to be there in a huge way, otherwise I'll predict we see 4.60% short term T-bill rates, and 30 bp higher agency rates by mid-late January. In order to stem that, the Fed would have to double or triple their monetization levels. Don't think they can do that much without risking a major USD swoon and alerting foreigners. I think they will be trapped in January, and will have no control over a rate decision on Jan. 31. GREBB is also when Toto pulls back the curtain on the Wizard of Oz.