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Strategies & Market Trends : Short Selling, Dark Side, Bubble Busting Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kailuabruddah who wrote (218)	12/16/2005 9:27:10 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 361

Bully CCL guides lower. Will this get to be a pattern, expectations sure are high. biz.yahoo.com High volume alert, followed by a feeble low vol bounce for a short entry? Of late these day downs actually end up being accumulation days and off to new highs so watch for that. The volume on the rally since early Nov has been awful though, so nothing real behind this one.

To: kailuabruddah who wrote (218)	12/16/2005 12:36:54 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 361

Bloated financial sphere and synthetic economics stock CME showing bearish divergences and a right shoulder. stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b200][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G I've been using bear put spreads on this one, 390/360 for Dec rolling out to a 380/350 for Jan. Covered put against a short is the other more aggressive way to play it. Housing stocks traded poorly after the KBH early ramp, looks like a distribution day there.

To: kailuabruddah who wrote (218)	12/22/2005 9:14:38 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 361

I picked up CCL Jan 55 puts yesterday on the low volume bounce back up to 54.25. High volume alert, and weak money flow, 8 convergence at 53.98. stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b200][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G SBUX looking similar, a 9 convergence overhead at 30.98. stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b200][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G WM has very bearish divergence of money flow and acc/dist on this parabolic move to new highs. stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b200][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G Think I may just load a Feb 47.5/42.5 bear spread if it runs a little higher. And what a strange play fundamantally here with the refi market swooning and a flat yield curve. How do they make money now? Before they snatched it back somewhat, yesterday was shaping up as a big reversal day. Today there is a monster 24.0 billion TOMO expiring, bullandbearwise.com as well as a 4.6 TIO. If they let a big chunk of it lapse, could get interesting. The January SPY puts have the lowest implied vol I've ever seen, at about 9.75. About as close to a freebee premium as you'll ever get. More signs of retail weakness, BBBY. I finally got lucky on one, had Jan 45 puts.