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To: skinowski who wrote (127143)12/16/2005 2:19:47 AM
From: Win-Lose-Draw  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 209892
 
...you think of puts primarily as "cover"...

Hell no! Sorry if I gave that impression. Puts are the safest way to play for downside trends in an upside-biased market like equities, I use them for speculative purposes all the time. In fact I have some now, because (a) they're cheap and (b) you could be right and this is going to crack downwards in a hurry.

A "wedge" is just a range with drift. More importantly (at least to me) is that I don't define ranges based on prices, I define them based on volatility. More or less stable long term price channel + ever-decreasing trading ranges -> rangebound.

I've shared my issues with P/C other times, so I'm not going to keep flogging that horse. There are a million equivalent ways of catching a move, if P/C fits someone's mode of thinking, who am I dissuade them? -g-

A higher expected return may justify a trade with a lower probability...

Yep. And because the biggest moves are the biggest surprises, the only hope of catching them is to find cheap ways of betting on the contraintuitive.