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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (47499)	12/16/2005 11:53:45 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

The 15.25 repo went, replaced with a six day $6.0, no pass.

To: ild who wrote (47499)	12/16/2005 12:49:25 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Fri Dec 16 2005 13:11 trotsky (frustrated@XAU options) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved currently there are 44,328 puts open in the XAU vs. 36,622 calls, for an OI p/c ratio of 1.21, which is higher than 94% of all readings over the past 52 weeks. not only that, he number of open puts is the highest in over two years. this may shift back again to a more 'normal' reading after the Dec. expiration, but as it now stands this is bullish. the biggest rallies in the XAU over the past 5 years have regularly coincided with put/call OI readings of this magnitude. as to why this is so, a large part of the put OI is likely professional hedging of long positions in the XAU component stocks. hedged positions tend not to get sold , which removes potential downward pressure. Date: Fri Dec 16 2005 12:41 trotsky (IDT@analogs) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved have you ever considered looking at the 1970's bull market as potentially providing a road map for your analog? i've noticed that your turn dates work very well, but i wonder if the bear market rally of '93 - '96 is really such a good template. after all, the long term character of the market appears to have changed profoundly. Date: Fri Dec 16 2005 12:37 trotsky (permabear) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "There does not seem to be any significant resistance on the part of the minority party to curb any of these excesses. The only reason for this I could imagine would be that Administration officials have information on all the skeletons minority party politicians have in their closet." it's more than that imo. there simply is no viable political opposition, because the two parties are merely the two faces of ONE party, the party of welfare/warfarism and state capitalism. in short, there is no protest because those NOW in the minority hope to be able to make good use of these oppressive and fascistic laws when its their turn to rule again. Date: Fri Dec 16 2005 12:27 trotsky (JD@HMY) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved reading Harmony's most recent quarterly report, there are lots of things in it that point toward a brighter future. most importantly, the growth pipeline is really impressive. the development projects set to come on stream over the next two to three years all sport decent IRR's , which have now obviously improved with the recent rise in the Rand PoG. then there's the big elephant, Target North. it'll cost a fortune to build, but that 68 million oz. orebody is the largest known gold orebody on the planet as far as i know. 'replacement of reserves' doesn't really seem to be a big problem for HMY in light of this. it may eventually even become a takeover target for another major, in spite of SA's BEE pitfalls. Date: Fri Dec 16 2005 12:15 trotsky (@Ahmedinejad) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved not only is Iran's new president a reactionary right-wing theocrat creep, his cabinet contains some of the most vile politicians allowed to roam free in Iran - a gaggle of mass-murderers basically. interestingly, this has triggered a good deal of resistance in Iran itself - in spite of the fact that Ahmedinejad's cabinet collegues are justly feared: antiwar.com