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To: BMcV who wrote (27478)	12/16/2005 12:26:58 PM
From: BWAC	Respond to of 95738

Only the double order'ers know, but history says it is entirely possible.

To: BMcV who wrote (27478)	12/16/2005 12:27:24 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 95738

Hi Bruce, I don't thiunk so. Mr Donahue on all this years web cast suggests that Capex buying has been held off and everyone is loathe to over buy. Most backlogs are 5-10% up not indicative of double ordering IMO Bob

To: BMcV who wrote (27478)	12/16/2005 12:36:27 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95738

Good point about the "inconsistency" among the financial community Re: Citigroup upgraded flash-memory by: mlc178 (M/New York) 12/15/05 10:43 am Msg: 237268 of 237286 Excerpts from Citigroup SNDK Report Today Bit supply growth of 258%, 168% and 107% is expected in 2005E, 2006E, and 2007E, respectively as industry evolves from a duopoly to an oligopoly, with Hynix and Intel+Micron emerging as strong secondary suppliers to Samsung and Toshiba/SanDisk. Supply faces challenges in ramping new NAND architectures such as multi level cell (MLC) and in scaling alternative architectures such as NROM or AG-AND. Further, available DRAM capacity for conversion to NAND flash should diminish by the latter half of 2006 given Vista's increased DRAM requirements. Lastly, preferential supply agreements with Apple, M-Systems, SanDisk, and other buyers are concentrating the NAND "channel." Demand growth of 264%, 168% and 106% should push supply capability. High-density flash-based MP3 players, and removable and embedded memory implementations in handsets will outpace NAND consumption from traditional digital camera and USB drives in 2006 and beyond. Upside demand risks exist in new application growth in PC, video player and enterprise applications, while downside risk could exist from hard drive-based MP3 player cannibalization. We see risks tipped more to demand upside than downside. New application growth will likely continue to surprise industry observers in breadth and popularity. Media center set-top box and notebook implementations in 2006 and late-2007, respectively, are possible, though neither are yet included in our forecast. We believe Samsung is tracking on or above plan for its 25% MLC mix this quarter and believe bit growth is on target. Confident that MP3 player densities will move to the 6GB to 8GB level in 2H06E, our conviction in SanDisk's growing MLC-based royalty revenue stream is high. And while bears will point to SanDisk's recent unfavorable STMicro IP ruling, we believe the Street remains too low on both industry bit growth and MLC royalty mix next year for SanDisk. Posted as a reply to: Msg 237267 by mlc178

To: BMcV who wrote (27478)	12/16/2005 4:18:13 PM
From: sixty2nds	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95738

16-Dec-05 07:17 ET In Play Citigroup downgrades TER to Hold, cuts AMKR to Sell : Citigroup downgrades Teradyne (TER 15.68) to Hold from Buy and cuts their tgt to $17 from $20, and also downgrades Amkor Tech (AMKR 6.20) to Sell from Hold and cuts their tgt to $4.50 from $5.50. The firm cites valuation that leaves little upside, a heightened risk of CQ1:06 "air pocket" - increasing specter of 2x-ordering will impact back-end most immediately, and recent data points suggesting nextgen game ramp (where both exposed) may see some near-term turbulence as the reasons for the downgrades.