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Strategies & Market Trends : US Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: gpowell who wrote (19)12/17/2005 5:20:25 PM
From: gpowellRespond to of 97
 
A word on government expenditure. If the net present value of a stream of future benefits is larger than the net present value of the debt service (assuming the debt is never paid down) then that expenditure will result, obviously, in a Pareto improvement. Thus, the presence of debt and/or the creation of debt is not, per se, a bad thing. Although let’s note that simply because the stream of benefits are greater doesn’t imply that the opportunity cost of the expenditure isn’t higher than the benefits, i.e. if one choice of expenditure prevents another, higher benefit alternative from being chosen, then even though the expenditure is still Pareto improving, it is not Pareto maximizing.

Be that as it may, given a particular level of government expenditures does it matter how that expenditure is financed? Strict Ricardian Equivalence (RE) says no. But for RE to hold there must be no difference in the marginal behavior of economic agents who pay the tax today verses those that pay the tax in the future (even if that tax is for debt service only).

Given that an income tax nearly always results in a deadweight loss to society, if the deadweight loss in the bond market is lower than the deadweight loss of income taxes, a Pareto improvement will occur by lowering taxes and raising debt levels. And it is almost certainly the case that bond markets have little to no deadweight loss.

See: en.wikipedia.org

Thus, by allowing agents to choose a mix of taxes and bonds a state of higher utility is now possible. This then becomes a weaker form of RE, but one in where agents still do not suffer from bond illusion (assuming economic agents do not learn is bad form in economics).