Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Triffin's Market Diary -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Triffin who wrote (283)	12/17/2005 8:47:46 PM
From: Triffin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 869

BC: POST PEAK WORLD VIEW .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Here is what I see in the next 30-50 years.... A national "History of the SUV" museum in Detroit as this is about the only place you will see SUVs anywhere. Conventional Peak Oil happens. As the decline in conventional oil happens, an infrastructure of the following will be developed to pick up the slack: 1) Coal to Oil Liquefaction plants galore 2) Nuclear power plants galore - supplying 85% of our electricity 3) Solar/wind/tidal power stations - supplying 15% of our electricity 4) Unconventional oil utilized on a wide scale 5) Plug-in electric hybrids that get 100+MPG everywhere 6) Plug-in electric diesel hybrids that get 100+MPG everywhere 7) Mass transit becomes common place in major cities 8) BioFuels from switch grass and algae fields galore 9) Nanotechnology making batteries more efficient (maybe electric cars based on nanotechnology) 10) Thermal Conversion plants all over the place making oil from waste I also feel there will be technological advances that we cannot even fathom that will help our energy situation even more. As I have said in the past, who would have thought 30 years ago we would have 30GB MP3 players that fit in your back pocket, DVD players, HD DVD players (coming to a store near you next spring), plasma TVs, computers EVERYWHERE, the Internet, hybrid cars, digital/HDTV cable, affordable satellite TV that have dishes the size of tires, home theatre systems that marvel real theatres, cell phones, wireless internet, laptops, etc (the list goes on and on). I understand that this list required fossil fuel to create the items listed but my point is that we have no idea what technology may bring in the future and how that may lessen the blow of Peak Oil. Any predictions to the contrary is just not acceptable. I am not saying that technology will save us 100% but to say technology will not help is crazy. If you can predict what technology will be like in 30 years from now can you please let me know as I would love to buy more stock!!!! I would say there is a good chance that we may see child limits imposed worldwide much like we see in China today. I could see a limit of 2 children per family in the United States - maybe not in the next 10 years but in the 50 years for sure. I am not saying this will happen, but definitely not outside the realm of possibilities. I can agree that our current lifestyle is not sustainable. We in the USA waste fuel like there is no tomorrow. Conservation (despite what people say about Jevon's Paradox) will not be just an option but a way of life in the future. Take a look at what happened after the fuel scare of the 1970s. The conservation just about crushed the control OPEC had the oil industry. I understand how because of this we have become sloppy again with our fuel usage but that is because there has not been shortages since then (pre-Katrina). In the future, the Peak Oil shortages will not allow us to be this sloppy again. Increased efficiency will not lead to additional usage as there will not be additional usage left. After 50 years, it is anyone's guess. But, I believe with all the things listed above, there is enough Oil (from all sources) to finance/facilitate this transition.