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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lane3 who wrote (7338)	12/18/2005 3:05:07 PM
From: Lane3	Respond to of 541455

"2006 Hurricane season! You can never be to rich, to good looking or have enough warning. For those of you who don't think hurricanes have any political impact I refer you to Brownies wikipedia entry. It may seem that I'm a little obsessed with the imminent destruction of the gulf coast. My excuse is that I live just close enough that the remnants keeps passing over the house. (Interesting side note: Hurricanes are noisy, even when they decay into tropical depressions. That fact never really sunk in till I tried to sleep through one). Anyway, here is a helpful holiday tip: The first flush of next years hurricane predictions come out in December. I know of two groups trying to do long term hurricane forecasting in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Risk and The Tropical Meteorology Project. If you thought 2005 was a whirlwind of fun and excitement then hang onto those Christmas stocking, cuss here comes 2006 . Besides giving next years predictions I thought I'd show a sampling of the accuracy of past December predictions. I am only showing “Named Storms”, these are storms that reach tropical storm strength (maximum sustained wind speed from 39 mph to 73 mph ), receive a name from the official list and may go on to form hurricanes. The TSR Forecasts 2005 forecast for 2006 Named Storms = 15.7 (±4.5), actual ? 2004 forecast for 2005 Named Storms = 13.4 (±3.6), actual 26 2003 forecast for 2004 Named Storms = 13.0 (±4.0), actual 16 2002 forecast for 2003 Named Storms = 12.4 (±3.5), actual 21 2001 forecast for 2002 Named Storms = 13.0 (±3.6), actual 14 The Tropical Meteorology Project forecast 2005 forecast for 2006 season Named Storms = 17, actual ? 2004 forecast for 2005 season Named Storms = 11, actual 26 2003 forecast for 2004 season Named Storms = 13, actual 16 2002 forecast for 2003 season Named Storms = 12, actual 21 2001 forecast for 2002 season Named Storms = 13, actual 14 2000 forecast for 2001 season Named Storms = 09 actual 17 The bottom line is two fold. First they are forecasting more storms than last year and second they always seem to underestimate the number of storms. Cavet: I think I read the reports correctly. Click the links and check out the web sites for yourselves." centristcoalition.com