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To: ralfph who wrote (3281)12/19/2005 2:59:47 AM
From: TheBusDriver  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78411
 
>shows how much of a crap shoot this game can be

Amen! I just happen to have been on Paul van Eeden's website yesterday and while there I read this in his profile:

In principle, I would prefer to be a value investor, seeking out investments that can be bought for less than their intrinsic value and hoping to capture a profit as the market recognizes an undervalued opportunity. On a rare occasion I still do come across such investments and they usually work out very well. But the excessive speculation that has enveloped the US equities markets during the past two decades has made "investing" almost impossible. Buying good companies at over-inflated prices cannot be regarded as investing no matter how good the companies, or their prospects, are. The fact is that what the American Investor has been doing for the past five years, or more, has been nothing other than speculating.

This speculating can be thought of as the "greater fool theory". I will buy an overpriced stock today and hope that some greater fool will buy it from me tomorrow at a higher price. In this game it is almost irrelevant what the company does, how expensive the stock is, what the future prospects of the company entail, or even whether the company will exist two years from now. The only criterion under consideration is whether the stock is likely to go up in the next few minutes, or for a "long term investor", sometime during the next week.

Investing, in the true sense of the word, is almost impossible in a market such as this.....


I got the impression he was talking about the tech bubble but it also applies to our jrs. as well.....

paulvaneeden.com

He must be reading your posts!<gggg>

Wayne