To: LindyBill who wrote (151721 ) 12/19/2005 1:43:14 AM From: Maurice Winn Respond to of 793575 Lindy, a few days ago we got another pay increase from our great and estimable soon-to-be-retired idol Uncle Al KBE. We now get 4.25% on our USD. Our son, who has lived in Japan for the past 15 months, has shorted the NZ$ vs yen. I was about to join in at 86 yen, but you can't dither when opportunities like that are sitting there waiting to be taken. A few short years ago [about Y2K] the USD was US40c to NZ$1. Now it's US70c to NZ$1. That's a very large change. Yen went from about 50 yen to 86 yen a week or so ago. That's a huge change too. No, we haven't invented new ways for sheep to eat grass, so I'm not convinced there is a good basis to it, though the USD was heavily diluted in response to the biotelecosmictechdot.com implosion so some USD decline was certain. Uridashi is apparently the driving force for the high NZ$ as Japanese housewives have many trillions of yen earning nothing at home, so 7% or more looks pretty good to them. Especially since they've also had a hefty exchange rate gain if the loans were denominated in NZD. nzherald.co.nz I like to moan about New Zealand, but I suppose if we judge me by my actions rather than my words, I continue to live here. It's pretty good in a LOT of ways, rampaging Santas notwithstanding. They were on tv tonight and it really was nothing much. Media like that at Xmas, with the Santa hook, but really just a bunch of young guys having fun on a sunny day after getting noisy with some beer. Some of them of course got a bit carried away, as young guys en masse tend to do, and so did some huge security company guys who might have overstepped their brief. Economically, it's pretty good here, though pay rates are substantially below Australian. There is a huge number of bludgers these days, living on various benefits. There's a substantial steady flow of productive people to Australia [about 1% of the population a year is leaving]. Those aren't the bludgers, so something like 2% a year of the productive are leaving. Or, on an earning basis, I guess about 3% of the earning capacity, or maybe even 5%, is leaving each year. That's net leaving. There's immigration too, and with local births, there's a continuing economic growth rate [maybe that will fizzle in the next year as there are looming economic problems for exporters due to the high NZ$ and the problem of lowering pay rates to compensate]. With a floating currency, 6.75% is just where it happens to be for now. As usual, when the NZ$ starts to slide, speculators will likely stampede for the exits, and as usual, getting a herd of elephants through a keyhole will be a problem. NZD might drop fairly quickly then. Or not. Depending on what everyone thinks. As they say, markets can stay irrational longer than a lot of people can stay solvent. Mqurice