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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (47782)	12/20/2005 1:58:15 PM
From: ahhaha	Respond to of 110194

Are you telling me you are not even aware of the fallout from the S&L bust and RTC days? I'm well aware of how much the press made it into a big deal, but there was no big deal as was seen over time. And you are the expert here? What makes me an expert is I wasn't influenced by media alarm over speculators going broke and greedy individuals taking a hit stretching for 8% returns from S&Ls speculating in property. At that time I told everyone it was a non-event, and that's what it was. Anyone holding a single family dwelling in that period assuming conventional financing had no difficulty whatsoever. Why should you try to stretch it into what it wasn't? The chart I gave tells you all that you need to know: non-event. If gold is up because the economy is so great today does that mean the economy of the 1980's and 1990's was bad? Correct. What you see and what the media trumpets as "good times" is rarely so. When markets slowly grind up, profitability is difficult, and you hear a lot of baseless uninformed complaining with many "the end is near" prognostications, that's when you have solid economics in place. From 1970 until Oct 1973, the first oil embargo, the public was swimmingly optimistic and thought good times would be upon us for a long time, but during that period the worst possible economic configuration was in place. Even if the embargo hadn't occurred the economy would have horribly tanked with rising rates and inflation strongly place long before the oil shock. Similarly, during the mid '50s people were looking for the next depression. It wasn't until the late '50s that the mood had turned into a recognition of good times, just when the "good times" were starting to ebb. It takes a long time to overcome mindless prejudice. If you want to be successful, you have to avoid being tainted by projections based upon the observation of individual occurrences.