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To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (43194)	12/21/2005 8:24:05 AM
From: shades	Respond to of 116555

France is worse no? upi.com 'Bonapartism looms' in France By MARTIN WALKER UPI Editor WASHINGTON, Dec. 20 (UPI) -- France is facing a political crisis so acute that it risks a fate "somewhere between that of Lebanon or Argentina," a distinguished French sociologist claimed Monday. "The state of emergency that was imposed to deal with last month's riots is to be continued, but it cannot resolve the triple crisis that France now confronts," Xavier Guilhou, an author and corporate consultant, told the Hudson Institute in Washington at a seminar on the significance of the French riots and of Islam in Europe. "The country faces a socio-economic crisis that can no longer be eased by the government going further into debt. The public debt, including state-funded pension liabilities, already stands at 120 percent of GDP, and will reach as much as 200 percent of GDP by 2015. The top limit of debt and of taxation has now been reached and perhaps exceeded," Guilhou began. "The second challenge is that France faces a crisis of identity unprecedented in our history, with the second and third generation of immigrants rejecting French society and its values, while hundreds of no-go zones now exist in France where the law does not go," he added. "Violence and insecurity are mot limited to these no-go zones, but also seep across into public transport, into our schools and streets in a general crisis of insecurity. "The socio-economic crisis squeezes the French middle class from above, while the security crisis squeezes them from below," Guilhou added. "The usual response to this would be through politics, but France faces a simultaneous political crisis in which no political party or leader has a coherent response. The country reminds me of Yugoslavia at the end of the Tito era." Guilhou's somber comments were reflected by other speakers at the seminar, including Dr Robert Leiken of the Nixon Center, and an expert on Islam in Europe, who suggested that "France has no way out - without breaking decisively with its current social and economic structure." Leiken and Guilhou each argued that France's highly-regulated labor market inhibited job creation, while high taxation and social insurance taxes inhibited job creation by small businesses. The result was stubbornly high levels of unemployment, particularly for immigrant youth, while aggressive policing sharpened the antagonism between French authority and its immigrants, who amount to almost 10 percent of the population. "A major factor in the French riots was a fight between the police and drug gangs based in the cites, the high-rise housing estates," Leiken said. "Three-quarters of those arrested in the riots were already known to the police. Islam and Muslim organizations had little to do with it. French intelligence, the Renseignements Generaux, in their post-riot report noted that the more devout the neighborhood in observance of Islam, the fewer the riots. "It was also striking that the conventional Muslim organizations were unable to stop the riots or to influence the young rioters. But the extremist Jihadists, who despise the conventional Muslim groups as sell-outs, may be able to recruit many of the hundreds of those arrested who are now in prison. Two-thirds of the French prison population is now Muslim," Leiken added. The Hudson Institute describes itself as "a non-partisan policy research organization dedicated to innovative research and analysis that promotes global security, prosperity, and freedom," with a distinct preference for free market and free enterprise ideals. Priding itself on innovative and unconventional thinking, its seminars often explore controversial issues in an outspoken way. But the seminar on the French riots was remarkable, even by Hudson Institute standards, for the bluntness of the analysis on the French crisis. "This is the end of the French political system that has prevailed since de Gaulle came to power and established the Fifth Republic in 1958," said Guilhou. "The middle classes are becoming impoverished, and they fear for the future of their children." "The system has run its course, and I expect a general implosion of the system leading to something between the Argentine economic crash and political crisis of 2001 when the government was thrown out of power, and the Lebanese situation. We can expect populist reflexes to emerge in the middle class, leading to that traditional French recourse in a crisis, the election of a new Bonapartism," Guilhou added. A diplomat from the French Embassy rose during the question and answers session to challenge the gloom and alarmism of the panel, and cited the measures taken by the government to improve the education, training and job prospects for the immigrant youth.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (43194)	12/21/2005 10:32:19 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK high street activity picks up markedly in December - CBI UPDATE Wednesday, December 21, 2005 11:48:10 AM afxpress.com LONDON (AFX) - High street activity picked up markedly in December, the UK's largest business lobby group said In its monthly distributive trades survey, the Confederation of British Industry said its volume of sales balance in December stood at 0 pct, against -35 pct in November and analysts' expectations of a modest improvement to -22 pct That was the first time since February that the balance was not negative and the monthly improvement represented the biggest positive move in over 10 years. "The underlying picture that seems to be emerging is that consumer spending will be reasonably healthy over the Christmas period," said Howard Archer at Global Insight "If borne out by hard data, this dilutes the case for an interest rate cut early in the new year," he added However, he noted that it may be too early say that a revival in consumer spending is sweeping the land "We suspect that many consumers have decided to splash out a bit more after limiting their purchases over much of 2005, and we remain dubious that a sustainable marked consumer upturn is starting to develop," he added He believes that growth will remain lacklustre over the coming months and that interest rates are headed lower in the early months of 2006 Perhaps bearing this out, the minutes of the Bank of England's last rate setting deliberations released this morning unexpectedly revealed one vote for a rate cut. The CBI's survey has come under some criticism over the last few months for not predicting the official retail sales figures from the office for National Statistics. Ian McCafferty, the CBI's chief economic advisor said Christmas, in retailing terms is coming later and later each year "as consumers play chicken with the high street and delay their spending in the expectation of late price cuts as the big day draws nearer" And, with Christmas falling on a Sunday this year, he said it is likely that that most people will leave their shopping until late on, right up to the moment the tills close on Christmas Eve In addition, the CBI said the recent cold snap has helped boost demand for groceries, clothes and footwear. Anecdotal evidence also suggests that retailers resorted to aggressive price discounting and bulk-buy offers to attract customers. Turning to other sectors covered by the survey, wholesalers' sales volumes have remained modestly better than this time last year. But motor traders' sales have continued to decline in annual terms. Despite the improvement in December, the CBI noted that the volume of sales is still lower than retailers would normally expect at this time of year at -11 pct

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (43194)	12/21/2005 11:05:40 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Senate passes $40 billion in budget cuts Wednesday, December 21, 2005 3:59:10 PM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) -- The Senate Friday morning passed legislation to cut spending by $40 billion over the next five years. The Senate voted 50- 50 on the bill, but Vice President Dick Cheney broke the tie to pass the measure. For the first time in eight years, the spending measure cuts funding for several entitlement programs. Programs affected include Medicaid and Medicare, and funding for student loans. However, Senate Democrats were successful in striking some provisions from the budget bill. This requires that the measure be sent back to the House for another vote. The House is not expected to return to Washington until late January

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (43194)	12/21/2005 11:15:48 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage applications fell to an 11-month low last week, dragged down by a decline in home purchasing even as interest rates dipped, an industry trade group said on Wednesday. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity for the week ended December 16 decreased 4.0 percent to 594.6 from the previous week's 619.3. Volume was at its lowest since the week ended January 7, when the index reached 587.8. Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 6.22 percent, down 0.06 percentage point from the previous week's 6.28 percent. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, the industry benchmark, is substantially above its 2005 low of 5.47 percent in late June, but below its 6.33 percent high in the week of November 11. The MBA's seasonally adjusted purchase mortgage index fell 5.2 percent to 453.1 from the previous week's 477.9. The index is considered a timely gauge of U.S. home sales. The group's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications dropped 1.6 percent to 1,418.1 compared with 1,441.8 the previous week. Volume was at its lowest level since the week ended June 25, 2004, when the index reached 1,386.9. Fixed 15-year mortgage rates averaged 5.76 percent, down from 5.83 percent the previous week. Rates on one-year adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) decreased to 5.41 percent from 5.50 percent. nytimes.com

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (43194)	12/21/2005 12:08:47 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

White House Press release & Q&A with McCLELLAN some snips - these are hilarious. A rough day for McCLELLAN? Q Scott, the Vice President said today that Vietnam and Watergate had eroded presidential powers, and that he thinks that the world we live in demands strong, robust executive authority. Where would the President like to see his authority expanded? MR. McCLELLAN: Well, I don't know -- I haven't had a chance to see the Vice President's comments, so I can't really get into discussing exactly what he was talking about, but certainly stand by what he said. [I don't know what he was talking about but I sure stand by what he said. LMAO - Read on McCLELLAN was crucified - Mish] Q So are you saying to members of Congress, it wouldn't be a good idea to hold these hearings? Or are you saying, if you hold these hearings, there's not much we're going to tell you? MR. McCLELLAN: Well, I'm not going to speculate about matters on the Hill. The President talked about how it's important that matters relating to this not be discussed publicly, for the reasons that we have stated. But again, Congress was consulted and briefed on this matter, going back to 2001. Q The President has publicly acknowledged that we went to war under false information, mistaken information. Why does he insist on staying there if we were there falsely, and continue to kill Iraqis? MR. McCLELLAN: Well, maybe you missed some of his recent speeches and his remarks, but the President said it was the right decision to remove Saddam Hussein and his regime from power -- Q And a right decision to move in and to tell the people, the American people, that it was all a mistake, and stay there? MR. McCLELLAN: I don't think he said that. He said that Saddam Hussein was a destabilizing force in a dangerous region of the world -- Q That isn't true. We had a choke-hold on him. MR. McCLELLAN: It is true. He was a threat. And the threat has been removed. Q I want to know why we're still there killing people, when we went in by mistake. MR. McCLELLAN: We are liberating people and freeing people to live in a democracy. And why we're still there -- Q Do you think we're spreading democracy when you spy and put out disinformation and do all the things that -- secret prisons, and torture? MR. McCLELLAN: I reject your characterizations wholly. I reject your characterizations wholly. The United States is helping to advance freedom in a dangerous region of the world. Q By killing people in their own country? MR. McCLELLAN: Well, I reject that. We're liberating and freeing people and we're targeting the enemy. We're killing the terrorists and we're going after the Saddam loyalists. Well, we've got a lot of technology that we can use to target the enemy without going after -- without collateral damage of civilians. And that's what our military does. Q Are you kidding? MR. McCLELLAN: Oh, I'm going to stand up for our military. Q Congress defines oversight as "the authority to conduct inquiries or investigations, to have access to records or materials, or to issue subpoenas or testimony from the executive." Which of these powers were members of Congress granted with regard to the NSA surveillance program? MR. McCLELLAN: Well, as you just pointed out, Congress is an independent branch of government, and they're elected by their constituents. We briefed and informed members of Congress about this program going back to 2001; more than a dozen times since then we've briefed members of Congress -- Q But briefing isn't power to investigate or issue subpoenas to ask questions. And I'm asking you, which of the powers of oversight were they granted? MR. McCLELLAN: Congress is an independent branch of government. That's what I just pointed out, Jessica. Q But as you know, members of Congress who were briefed said that they were informed -- yes, briefed, but given absolutely no recourse to formally object, to push back and say, this is not acceptable. MR. McCLELLAN: They're an independent branch of government. Q So in what way were they given oversight? MR. McCLELLAN: They were briefed. And we believe it's important to brief members of Congress, the relevant leaders -- Q Would you also say they were given full oversight? MR. McCLELLAN: They're an independent branch of government. Yes, they have -- Q Were they given oversight? MR. McCLELLAN: Yes, they have oversight roles to play. Q So they have oversight. So, in what way could they have acted on that oversight? MR. McCLELLAN: You should ask members of Congress that question. Q Another question. It's our understanding this power has been used 18,000-plus times. Are we to presume that there are that many al Qaeda agents in this country? MR. McCLELLAN: I'm not going to get into talking about more than what we've said publicly. That's getting into more than what we've talked about publicly, so I'm not in a position to confirm or deny the numbers that you threw out there. Q -- give us an indication of how often this power is used? MR. McCLELLAN: We must move with great speed to stay ahead of them. Q You don't want to give us an indication of how often this power is used, and you don't want to give us an indication of the size of the potential threat in this country> MR. McCLELLAN: No, I think, again, the Attorney General and General Hayden talked a little bit about this yesterday, but I talked about the nature of this authorization and the scope of it, and I talked about the safeguards and oversight that are in place. Q are we to presume, then, that there are in excess of tens of thousands of al Qaeda agents in this country, because it's been used that many times? MR. McCLELLAN: No, I'm not confirming or denying those numbers. I don't think anyone has done that publicly, so I'm not going to get into a discussion of that nature. Q Scott, in April of 2004, President Bush delivered remarks on the Patriot Act, and he said at that time, "any time you hear the United States government talking about wiretap, it require -- a wiretap requires a court order. Nothing has changed, by the way. When we're talking about chasing down terrorists, we're talking about getting a court order before we do so." Was the President being completely forthcoming when he made that statement? MR. McCLELLAN: I think he was talking about in the context of the Patriot Act. Q And in terms of the American people, though, when he says "nothing has changed" -- MR. McCLELLAN: I would have to look back at the remarks there, but you're clearly talking about it in the context, as you pointed out, of the Patriot Act. The Patriot Act is another vital tool. That's why the Senate needs to move forward and get that reauthorized now. We cannot let that expire -- not for a single moment, because the terrorist threat is not going to expire. Q So you don't see it as misleading in any way when the President says, "nothing has changed"? MR. McCLELLAN: You're asking me to look back at something that is in relation to the Patriot Act. And it's in relation to the Patriot Act -- Q But he's talking about wiretaps -- MR. McCLELLAN: -- and I'll be glad to take a look at his comments. I think you're taking them out -- I think the suggestion that you're making, I reject that suggestion. And I'll be glad to take a look at those comments. Q Two questions. On the ruling about intelligent design in Pennsylvania, does the President think that ruling should be challenged? Does he have any thoughts on it? MR. McCLELLAN: Well, we weren't a party to the case, so -- and we're not going to comment about the specific legal decision. But I think that the President has made his views very clear. The President has said that such decisions should be made by local school districts. He's long held that belief and he's long stated that belief. The President has also said that he believes students ought to be exposed to different theories and ideas so that they can fully understand what the debate is about. Q Scott, I think it was two, or maybe three of the people who were briefed on the NSA program said they expressed at least some reservations, and one actually showed us a letter saying he had grave reservations. What was done with those reservations? MR. McCLELLAN: Well, actually, you talk about a letter that was released by a senator. There were additional briefings after the one that was referenced in that letter; we had more than a dozen briefings with members of Congress on this authorization. The President said that they were briefed on the authorization and the activities conducted under it. We believe that's important. We respect the role that Congress plays, and that's why they were briefed on this matter. Now, this is a highly classified program and we believe it was briefed in the appropriate way. Q Did you take those into consideration? Did those objections lead to any change in the program? MR. McCLELLAN: I'm not going to go further than what I've said, in terms of the briefings that were had. Q Did the President meet The New York Times editor on December 6th and ask him to not publish the eavesdropping story? MR. McCLELLAN: I saw reports about that; I'm not going to get into discussing it, though. Q No confirm, no deny? MR. McCLELLAN: No, neither. Ken, go ahead. Q Scott, are there any kind of surveillance techniques or operations that this administration has considered, but rejected as unlawful? Or is the position in the building that the use of force resolution places no legal limits on whatever the President deems is necessary? MR. McCLELLAN: I'll reject the latter part of your question. Q What about the first? MR. McCLELLAN: I'm not going to get into discussing these matters, national security matters of this nature. Q If it became useful and necessary to listen in on conversations between two people within the United States, does the President believe has the legal authority to do that now? MR. McCLELLAN: Well, there are other tools available to us. He talked about that very issue yesterday. FISA is an important tool. We make use of FISA. But this is a difference between monitoring and detecting and preventing. And there are differences here that General Hayden and the Attorney General talked about yesterday, as well. cgi.wn.com