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To: oexchaos who wrote (127388)	12/23/2005 12:13:43 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Respond to of 209892

There were numerous breaks of the "lows" prior to that, all of them false signals. Worse, there were plenty of sentiment indicators indicating excessive bullishness: lots of senti traders were shorting based on sentiment, and they got killed. Worse worse, most those who faded the (hindsight) correct sentiment meausure at the low got out way to early based on (foresight) sentiment and missed move of the move. Rangebound markets make sentiment look better than it is for the same reason rangebound markets make most systems look better than they are: they are kind to anyone getting caught looking the wrong way, and if you have the patience and wallet to wait long enough, it all comes back to you. By definition. Trend kills sentiment as surely as it kills systems based on fading other cyclical indicators.

To: oexchaos who wrote (127388)	12/23/2005 12:17:57 PM
From: Galirayo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

>>Regardless, Sentiment is key to reading your charts correctly.<< Sentiment is Skewed by Idiots who participate in the Polls. Charts Contain Idiots too .. But they are not Skewed as much by Adverse Selection. The Idiots who effect the Charts are eliminated in short order and become extinct.

To: oexchaos who wrote (127388)	12/23/2005 12:21:33 PM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

As I recall reading about it, Gary Smith uses a semi-mechanical system where a computer generates for him a list of breakouts from consolidations - both up and down - and out of those lists he hand picks every day several longs and shorts, and his broker enters the trades. At the time of entry, they also put in targets - to exit when he ether has a 6% profit, or a 3% loss - whichever comes first. Not a bad deal.... and it even has a "built in" market direction indicator - when he gets more bullish breakouts, that means the market is in an up mode, and vice versa. He developed this system so that he can "have a life" - write, teach, to be a talking head, etc. -- while still making a steady income. Smart guy.

To: oexchaos who wrote (127388)	12/23/2005 12:21:38 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

As I recall reading about it, Gary Smith uses a semi-mechanical system where a computer generates for him a list of breakouts from consolidations - both up and down - and out of those lists he hand picks every day several longs and shorts, and his broker enters the trades. At the time of entry, they also put in targets - to exit when he ether has a 6% profit, or a 3% loss - whichever comes first. Not a bad deal.... and it even has a "built in" market direction indicator - when he gets more bullish breakouts, that means the market is in an up mode, and vice versa. He developed this system so that he can "have a life" - write, teach, to be a talking head, etc. -- while still making a steady income. Smart guy.