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To: marginmike who wrote (127413)	12/23/2005 2:24:36 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

meant ive been a bull

To: marginmike who wrote (127413)	12/23/2005 2:55:21 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

The Pro's are not very short the big contract on the SPX COT, so I don't think they're very bearish here. That may have something to do with the technical areas being tested currently. If you look back at the end of 2003, the commercials were positioned about the same as they are now, and they remained that way through much of 2004 as the SPX corrected 9% into August 2004. I was a bit taken aback when I noticed how long the commercials still were this month, but taken in context with 2004's historic positions and correctinve market action, it seems to work OK with me. I don't have a chart in front of me, but isn't there a possibility we're in some sort of "B" off the SPX 1163 highs in early 2004? That would work best with the launch I'm anticipating off an October 2006 low and into early 2008, as that could be a "C" wave up to match the "A" up from 768 to 1163. If we get a 10% correction in the SPX off an anticipated (by me) 1295 high in early Jan 2005, a "C=A" move on the SPX would take us to a test of the 2000 highs in the neighborhood of 1560 SPX by early 2008. BTW, I have some contacts in Chicago that tell me many of the luxury retailers there are seeing sales drop 50% YOY from 2004. The problem seems to be over-leveraged home purchases financed by ARM's that are rising every 6-weeks. Add in high utility costs, higher property taxes, and down-sizing and you have a recipe for a housing correction in that area. Chicago has been a bit of an aberration in the midwest, as the suburban Chicago areas participated somewhat in the housing bubble, unlike the rest of the midwest US. However, that is coming to a screeching halt. All this seems to line up with expectations. The proposed C wave into 2008 would also give us a multi-year "B" wave that would fit in with my expectations going forward. As for the Yellar stuff, it may need to correct into March if we get that monthly stick flipping longs the bird like it is right now. stockcharts.com[h,a]maclyyay[pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lg!li10,10!lh5,5!lp14,3,3!ll14][J8947795,Y]&pref=G

To: marginmike who wrote (127413)	12/23/2005 3:53:32 PM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

MM, what can I say... We live in a crazy world. Let's hope that the worst of our worries never become reality. About the markets - I think more or less along the same lines. You know, in a broader sense, I think that we are in a secular bear market, not unlike what took place from the late 60's into the early 80's. Back then, there were brutal declines, followed by mighty cyclical bull advances, only to go down again into another hard decline. And all this was going on while - nominally - the markets were in a range, not going anywhere. I say nominally - because in real terms, after inflation, the dollar during that period lost about 75% of its purchasing power. Having kept money in the markets was a total disaster, even though the numbers stayed the same. I think it will be a long process, with big ups and downs... Let's just hope that we and people around us are OK... the markets -- that we can manage.

To: marginmike who wrote (127413)	12/23/2005 5:39:46 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Father Doom!-vbg I am not getting any sentiment extremes. Things are shifting to the bull side slowly but my EPC, TRIN, TICK and other stuff is still benign. I'm still looking at a Nova/Ursa ratio of 0.22 which is half of what it was even at the early 2004 highs. COT had a big switch this week but I suspect they are setting up for nothing more than a correction of the Oct impulses which I think still have a wave (5) to finish. The dominant chart pattern for me remains the upside break on the COMP rising wedge on the weekly which was backtested this week and held nicely. If that wedge continues to hound, then notwithstanding perhaps another and deeper backtest, I don't think we will see a weekly close below 2175 for a very long time. If that wedge's upper line fails then I will re-evaluate but until then the bull is in charge. In general, there is very little for the bulls to be concerned about strictly from a chart perspective, and that remains the most important thing for me.