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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Maurice Winn who wrote (2827)12/24/2005 8:05:21 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 217852
 
Hello Maurice, <<The USA has intrinsic advantages>>

... and those would precisely be what? Another mostly empty territory where the residents can be regime changed?

In case you hadn't heard, the campaign in Mesopotamia is about done, and well, should the original fears be realized, Saudi Arabia will be a new battle ground, for another ... what, 3 years? After, teotwawki will be that much closer.

You are not going to call upon the English language as an intrinsic advantage, are you? Be serious.

Well, actually don't; for the entertainment value is simply too rich :0)

Or are you going to invoke the non-starter argument of 'most flexible' economy ;0)

Learn to challenge assumptions Maurice, do not be a clone.

Remember the time before the 300 year accident, that was the norm, suppose for a mo, and as you should well know, it is precisely not important for all 1.3 bil or 2.6 bil folks to average out at more than Switzerland; it is enough for 100 mil or 200 mil. This is the neat thing about trajectories.

Arun is also faulty in assuming that the top spot cannot be kept. Must experience the truth that is embodied in the board game of Risk, where the obvious winning player over extends, and the apparent catch-up player does exactly that, just in the right time, and makes a clean sweep ... the critical event is not clean sweep, the critical issue is clean sweep WHEN, such that the sweep can be maintained.

that is the scenario I figure, and in the meantime, thanks to the likes of Greensputin, BurnAndKaput, and Konig GWB Mission Accomplished NotAtAll, the trajectory has momentum. The script is so very obvious, but I am guessing not to the majority.

My basic assumption is that capitalism is a very astute system, and when applied be very clever, as in intrinsically smart folks, is a winning combo. Well, the system is now being applied by very clever folks, who, given half a chance anywhere in the world, does well, in any language. That is the intrinsic.

You are simply espousing the majority view, and ... well, enough of that, moving to a BTW, speaking of what you and I haggled over back and forth, with you on the side of majority, and now, wrong again, because the hair is starting to show ... :0)

The script, it was so obvious. Anyone who would cheat on his wife would of course cheat on his investors.

You must learn to challenge your not well founded assumptions, cut out the slogans, and see the truth amongst the facts.

online.barrons.com

JACK WELCH, GENERAL ELECTRIC'S DEMANDING former chief executive, delighted in setting the bar high. When he stepped down a few days before Sept. 11, 2001, he left his successor, Jeffrey Immelt, the challenge of matching a remarkable string of years of strong profit growth.

What was most remarkable about those years, however, wasn't apparent to anyone outside the company until recently. The bar might have been set artificially high.

During the last five years of the Welch era, ended in 2001, GE's reported earnings jumped from 72 cents a share to $1.37, a rise of 65 cents a share, or 90.2% -- spectacular for a behemoth like GE. But without a massive under-reserving at its reinsurance unit, the company would have shown a cumulative earnings gain of just four cents, or 5.6%.

Ex-boss Welch, top, left current CEO Immelt with a big mess to clean up.

The under-reserving is expected to be completely corrected early next year, clearing the way for the unit's sale to Swiss Re. By the time that occurs, General Electric (ticker: GE) will have pumped in $9.4 billion in pretax dollars since 2001 to raise the reserves to an adequate level. When taxes are taken into consideration, the tab will come to $6.1 billion, or about 61 cents a share. And 61 cents would have all but torched the 65 cents of earnings gains in Welch's last five years.



To: Maurice Winn who wrote (2827)12/25/2005 5:21:46 PM
From: arun gera  Respond to of 217852
 
>It's already 8 years since I was in Bangalore, so I suppose quite a bit has changed, but I'd be surprised if it isn't much the same. It is very very far from a first world place. So it's one person short of "everyone thinks of Bangalore as being this First World kind of place" [you makes two].>

With Tom Friedman and all popularizers of the flat world, Bangalore has this halo around it in US media. You and I who have visited it know that it is just another Indian city, that was pleasant at one time. However, the brand name is such that most US tech companies first set up their Indian office in Bangalore. In terms of software industry knowhow, Bangalore already has the second highest concentration of resources as Silicon Valley. Of course as one of the Google spokesman said to Wall Street Journal "one great programmer is worth 500 average ones". So Silicon Valley wins on that score, and will for some time, because the US education system still attracts the best talent. However, Bangalore will also have its share of super-programmers, as it has an increasingly large pool of experts and lot of money being thrown into the mix.

-Arun



To: Maurice Winn who wrote (2827)12/25/2005 6:44:50 PM
From: arun gera  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 217852
 
Maurice,

I agree that total numbers are not the thing. The US lead in the world depends a lot on the contribution of 1-2 million smart individuals. Due to the creativity and hardwork of these few, certain US teams/companies/militaries/agencies are world beaters. Ordinary man on the street is not much better than the ordinary man on the street in other countries. One big plus -the US domestic justice system works better than almost anywhere in the world - but sometimes I wonder whether that is the cause or the result of prosperity.

But let us look realistically at what sort of competition India and China have had to offer since the last 50 years. I have no first hand knowledge of the progress in China. However, I have lived in 10 different cities in India and am still closely involved with both US and India.

India has been independent since 60 years. The college enrollments in India in 1950, 1980, and 2000 were approximately 150,000, 2 million , and 6 million. The corresponding US numbers have been approximately 2 million, 13 million, and 15 million. These are all ball park numbers, but accurate numbers are available elsewhere on the internet. The point is that the gaps in the number of graduates is narrowing. And in another 10 years will definitely get narrower, if you look at the high school enrollments in the two countries. China's entry into higher education is even more recent, but accelerating even faster.

Let us look at the Indians who graduated from college in the 1950s and how much impact they have had in the western world. Remember that there were so few of them. The well known ones are also very few - economists like Amratya Sen (Nobel Prize winner)and Jagdish Bhagwathi, some musicians like Ravi Shankar and Zubin Mehta, and others.

In 1980s, India was starting to graduate only 15 percent the number of collge grads as USA. Many of the better graduates headed towards engineering fields, about 10 percent of them studying in US graduate schools. As a result, the premier research labs in US - Bell Labs, IBM Labs, NASA, Cisco, Intel, Qualcomm have significant percentage of Indians. Indian Americans wield a significant influence in Silicon Valley and provide a competitive edge to US high tech industry. Since the last 10 years another flood of IT specialists have arrived in the US from India and now comprise a majority in the IT departments of some Fortune 100 companies.

The fact is that such a small number of 1980s graduates from India are making such a big impact on the highest end of US economy drivers. Indian Americans are running about 10 years behind on Wall Street and in Corporate America.

So looking forward, the impact of the Indian graduates of 2000-2005 period will be larger both in USA and in India. For now thanks to outsourcing and internet, more are getting exposed to world class companies, processes, and knowledge.

Add in China, and the competition grows. US will have to work harder to co-opt the two countries and their work forces in order to stay ahead.

-Arun

>China has numbers, but as Bangladesh, Nigeria, Luxembourg, Hong Kong and Switzerland show, there is much more to wealth per capita than numbers.

China has only 4 x as many people as the USA, so even in absolute terms, it's not vastly ahead.>