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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (48113)	12/24/2005 1:53:13 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

So basically you think rates have peaked or are close to peaking? I recall you were in the inflation camp in the past, which proved correct.

To: russwinter who wrote (48113)	12/24/2005 2:19:01 PM
From: KM	Respond to of 110194

I'm in virtually the same position. Own only one house which I inherited (paid for, rented out long term and worth apparently over 600K in this riduculous market) in a resort town in Nova Scotia. Rent a house which is mostly operating off the grid. Drydocking my car to the extent I can. Own a boatload of long dated index and stock puts. Some long stock positions in stuff that has crashed and burned and is market-immune (or has been throughout the bear market). Still have quite a bit of gold. Makes me feel secure :) Don't have my sterno and MRE yet, but maybe someone will give me those for xmas ;)

To: russwinter who wrote (48113)	12/24/2005 3:33:24 PM
From: jackjc	Respond to of 110194

Russ you are positioned very well IMO. Also think Treas Direct is the only really safe cash. And have essentially no RE anymore. And can walk to everything. But I still am mainly in PM jrs, and think there is more to gain, but have highest cash position ever. Fondly recall your coming up with good PM jrs in 01-03 yrs and the great resultant excitement and gains. And ole Albert's Gryphon Gold got started Thursday, 1.05 range. I got a good chunk at .20 as a private co. Best wishes to you for the Holidays and coming year.

To: russwinter who wrote (48113)	12/24/2005 9:00:19 PM
From: kailuabruddah	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I am pretty much in agreement on the very defensive nature of your strategy... Faber has essentially spelled this out: ameinfo.com And I do think there will be good opportunities to make money via short (and put option) positions in 2006 in certain sectors (I'm watching restaurants and travel plays in particular)... This being the 2nd year of the 2nd term of a re-elected president helps the short side as well... Although we will probably see an emotional blow-off rally if the US really does scale back in Iraq... But the bullish case for longer dated (say the 5 year in particular) US debt is: 1. RE/Consumer led slowdown/recession beginning now 2. Assuming no Alternative Minimum Tax modification - economy slows even more 3. Commodity Boom is due a breather of at least 1 to 2 years 4. Pension/Insurance funds still need to match assets with liabilities 5. There is simply no Wage Inflation working its way thru the system Mish should have waited until GREBB Day to publish this: safehaven.com Maybe he can update it for the end of January?